Week of May 28 – 31, 2026

Charles
Schwab
Challenge

Hogan's Alley. Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth is one of the most demanding, beloved, and historically rich stops on Tour — tight fairways, tiny greens, and zero margin for error. Åberg our pick at +950, Henley the value at +1800, and Smalley the longshot at +3500 after his stunning T2 at the PGA Championship.

This Week's Favorites
Charles Schwab Challenge 2026
📍 Colonial Country Club · Fort Worth, TX · May 28–31 · Par 70 · 7,289 yds · "Hogan's Alley"
Ludvig Åberg BB PICK
🇸🇪 World #4 · Best stats in field · +950
+950
Russell Henley VALUE
🇺🇸 T3 Masters · Elite scrambling · +1800
+1800
Justin Thomas
🇺🇸 T10 PGA Champ · Colonial veteran · +2000
+2000
Ben Griffin
🇺🇸 Defending champion · +2700
+2700
Alex Smalley LONGSHOT
🇺🇸 T2 PGA · 5 straight top-20s · +3500
+3500
This Week
Colonial Country Club — "Hogan's Alley"
|
Par 70 · 7,289 yds
|
Fort Worth, Texas
|
Charles Schwab · $9.2M Purse
|
⛳ Perry Maxwell design · Tight · Unforgiving
⚡ Breaking
Fitzpatrick brothers win Zurich Classic — first brothers ever to win on PGA Tour · Matt 3 wins in 4 starts · Alex earns 2-year PGA Tour card  •  Cadillac Championship begins Thursday — Trump National Doral · Blue Monster · 7,739 yards · $20M purse · No cut  •  BogeyBeats picks: Scheffler +300 (win) · Cameron Young +1300 (value) · Adam Scott +3300 (longshot — last Doral winner 2016)  •  🐢 Trundling Turtle: Ben Griffin over Pi Coody R1 matchup — stat-backed edge at the Blue Monster  •  Matt Fitzpatrick now leads FedExCup standings — 3 wins in 4 starts · Valspar, RBC Heritage, Zurich Classic  •  Adam Scott last won at Doral in 2016 — 4th in SG: T2G in this field · course knowledge + elite irons = +3300 value  •  Scheffler arrives hungry — two runner-ups at Masters and RBC Heritage · leads Tour in SG: Total, Birdie Avg, Bogey Avoidance  •  Fitzpatrick brothers win Zurich Classic — first brothers ever to win on PGA Tour · Matt 3 wins in 4 starts · Alex earns 2-year PGA Tour card  •  Cadillac Championship begins Thursday — Trump National Doral · Blue Monster · 7,739 yards · $20M purse · No cut  •  BogeyBeats picks: Scheffler +300 (win) · Cameron Young +1300 (value) · Adam Scott +3300 (longshot — last Doral winner 2016)  •  🐢 Trundling Turtle: Ben Griffin over Pi Coody R1 matchup — stat-backed edge at the Blue Monster  •  Matt Fitzpatrick now leads FedExCup standings — 3 wins in 4 starts · Valspar, RBC Heritage, Zurich Classic  • 
Latest News
All Stories →
All
Analysis
Results
🏆
PGA Championship Recap
One Putt at a Time: Aaron Rai Wins PGA Championship at Aronimink, Becomes First Englishman to Hold Wanamaker in 107 Years

Three shots back at the turn on Sunday, Rai made a 40-foot eagle on 9, then one-putted seven straight greens, then holed a 70-footer on 17 for the clincher. A performance for the ages from a player who wears two gloves and dreamed of Formula 1.

BogeyBeats StaffMay 18, 20267 min
⛳
Charles Schwab Preview
Hogan's Alley Preview: Åberg Our Pick at Colonial, Henley the Value, Smalley the Longshot After His PGA Near-Miss
BogeyBeats StaffMay 27, 20266 min
🏆
Truist Recap
The Norwegian Dream: Kristoffer Reitan Stuns at Quail Hollow for First PGA Tour Win
May 11, 20267 min
🏆
Cadillac Recap
Young's Miami Masterclass: Wire-to-Wire at Doral, Six Clear of Scheffler
May 4, 20267 min
🏆
Zurich Recap
Brothers in Arms: Fitzpatricks Become First Siblings to Win on PGA Tour
Apr 27, 20266 min
🏆
RBC Heritage Recap
4-Iron into History: Fitzpatrick Beats Scheffler in Harbour Town Playoff
Apr 20, 20267 min
🏆
Masters Recap
The Rory Republic: McIlroy Wins Back-to-Back Masters
Apr 13, 20268 min
🔧
Equipment
Scheffler's Driver Tinkering: Why the World No. 1 Finally Ditched His Qi10
Mar 9, 20265 min
BogeyBeats Picks
All Picks →

Our model weights SG: Approach, course history, proximity 150–200 yds, and recent form. Click any card for the full write-up.

⭐ Outright Win
Ludvig Åberg
+950
Åberg is the best player in this field by a significant margin and enters Colonial in his best form of the 2026 season. He ranks first in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, he has made the cut in all eight of his starts this spring, and Colonial's demand for precision iron play and elite scrambling suits his ball-striking profile perfectly. He has come close at Colonial before — solo third in 2025 — and the wins are coming. This is the week.
Best stats in field#1 SG: T2GSolo 3rd Colonial 2025Elite irons
💰 Value Play
Russell Henley
+1800
Henley is one of the most underrated picks on this board. He finished T3 at the Masters with elite scrambling, he leads the Tour in scrambling percentage, and Colonial's tiny greens and demand for short game precision are exactly where Henley makes his money. He has two previous top-10s at Colonial and his bogey avoidance — the key stat at Hogan's Alley — is among the best in the field at +1800.
T3 Masters 2026Tour leader scrambling2× top-10 Colonial
🚀 Longshot
Alex Smalley
+3500
Smalley led the PGA Championship by three strokes entering the final round and shot 70 to finish T2 — a performance that confirms he belongs at the highest level. He has now strung together five consecutive top-20 finishes and his tee-to-green metrics rank 4th in this field. At Colonial, where precision matters more than length, Smalley's accuracy and ball-striking are ideal. +3500 is too big for a player riding this kind of wave.
T2 PGA Championship5 straight top-20s4th SG: T2G in field
All
Analysis
Results
🏆
PGA Championship Recap
One Putt at a Time: Aaron Rai Wins PGA Championship at Aronimink — First Englishman to Hold Wanamaker in 107 Years

Three shots back at the turn, Rai eagled the 9th with a 40-footer, one-putted seven straight, then holed a 70-foot birdie on 17 for the clincher. A performance for the ages from a player who wears two gloves and once dreamed of Formula 1.

BogeyBeats StaffMay 18, 20267 min
⛳
Charles Schwab Preview
Hogan's Alley Preview: Åberg Our Pick at Colonial, Henley the Value, Smalley the Longshot After His PGA Near-Miss
BogeyBeats StaffMay 27, 20266 min
🏆
Truist Recap
The Norwegian Dream: Reitan Stuns at Quail Hollow for First PGA Tour Win
May 11, 20267 min
🏆
Cadillac Recap
Young's Miami Masterclass: Wire-to-Wire at Doral, Six Clear of Scheffler
May 4, 20267 min
🏆
Zurich Recap
Brothers in Arms: Fitzpatricks Become First Siblings to Win on PGA Tour
Apr 27, 20266 min
🏆
RBC Heritage Recap
4-Iron into History: Fitzpatrick Beats Scheffler in Harbour Town Playoff
Apr 20, 20267 min
🏆
Masters Recap
The Rory Republic: McIlroy Wins Back-to-Back Masters
Apr 13, 20268 min
🏆
Recap
Bold as Arnie: Bhatia Rallies from 5 Down to Beat Berger in Bay Hill Playoff
Mar 8, 20266 min
💚
Recap
Courage Over Fear: Gary Woodland Wins Houston Open — Golf's Greatest Comeback
Mar 29, 20267 min
🔧
Equipment
Scheffler's Driver Tinkering: Why the World No. 1 Finally Ditched His Qi10
Mar 9, 20265 min
Back to News

··

🎯 This Week's Picks

1
Åberg WIN
Outright · DraftKings
+950
2
Henley VALUE
Outright · DraftKings
+1800
3
Smalley LONG
Outright · DraftKings
+3500

📅 Up Next

Jun
11
US Open 🏆
Oakmont CC · Oakmont, PA
May
14
PGA Championship
Aronimink GC · PA
⛳ Colonial Country Club — Key Facts
Par 70 · 7,289 yards · Fort Worth, Texas · "Hogan's Alley" · Longest-running Tour event at one site (80th renewal) · Perry Maxwell design · Tight fairways, tiny greens, Horrible Horseshoe (holes 3-4-5) · Notable absentees: Scheffler, McIlroy, Cameron Young, Fitzpatrick
RNK
Player
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
1
Ludvig Åberg 🇸🇪 BB PICK
World #4 · #1 SG: T2G in field · Solo 3rd Colonial 2025 · Best stats in this depleted field
+950
+900
+800
2
Russell Henley 🇺🇸 BB VALUE
Tour leader scrambling · T3 Masters · 2× top-10 Colonial · Bogey avoidance elite
+1800
+1800
+1800
3
Justin Thomas 🇺🇸
T10 PGA Championship · Multiple Colonial top-20s · Precise controlled game fits perfectly
+2000
+2200
+2000
4
Robert MacIntyre 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
4th SG: Putting · 9th SG: OTT · Colonial precision suits Scottish iron game
+2200
+2200
+2200
5
Rickie Fowler 🇺🇸
T2 Truist (with fever) · Top-40 driving accuracy · Red-hot form · Loves Colonial
+2700
+2700
+2700
6
Ben Griffin 🇺🇸
Defending champion · T3 Cadillac · T14 PGA Champ · Course knowledge advantage
+2700
+2700
+2200
7
J.J. Spaun 🇺🇸
US Open + Valero winner · Precision driver · Multiple Colonial top-15s · +3000
+3000
+3000
+3000
8
Alex Smalley 🇺🇸 BB LONGSHOT
T2 PGA Championship · 54-hole leader at Aronimink · 5 straight top-20s · 4th SG: T2G
+3500
+3300
+3500
9
Hideki Matsuyama 🇯🇵
Elite long-iron play · T10 PGA · Multiple Colonial visits · Always dangerous
+3500
+3500
+3500
10
Si Woo Kim 🇰🇷
#1 driving accuracy on Tour · Multiple top-10s in 2026 · Precision off tee = Colonial edge
+3500
+4000
+3500
11
Corey Conners 🇨🇦
Elite GIR · Co-led PGA after R1 · Bogey avoidance specialist · Colonial course fit
+4000
+4000
+4000
12
Tommy Fleetwood 🇬🇧
9-for-9 cuts 2026 · 2nd SG: ARG · Colonial precision suits his all-around game
+4000
+4000
+4000
13
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
API winner · 5th SG: Putt · Colonial short course mitigates distance weakness
+4500
+5000
+4500
14
Keegan Bradley 🇺🇸
Multiple Colonial top-15s · Ryder Cup captain · Steady bogey avoider
+4500
+4500
+5000
15
Gary Woodland 🇺🇸
T11 Colonial 2025 · 4 of 5 Colonial starts gained SG: Putting · Houston Open winner
+5000
+5000
+5000
16
Kristoffer Reitan 🇳🇴
Truist champion · Riding massive confidence · Iron play fits Colonial demand
+5500
+6000
+6000
17
Sam Burns 🇺🇸
Multiple Colonial top-15s · Elite Bermuda putter · Louisiana native comfortable in heat
+5500
+5500
+5500
18
Wyndham Clark 🇺🇸
Won CJ Cup Byron Nelson last week · Withdrew but watch if he enters · Hot hand
+6000
+7000
+6000

Odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · Updated May 27, 2026. Notable absentees: Scheffler, McIlroy, Cameron Young, Fitzpatrick. Must be 21+. Please bet responsibly. 1-800-GAMBLER.

🧠
How Our Model Works
We combine strokes-gained data from the past 24 rounds with course-specific stats — weighting heavily on SG: Approach and putting on Bermudagrass — then overlay current Vegas lines to identify positive expected value plays.
🎯
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Active picks for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana. Apr 23–26, 2026. Team event — best-ball & alternate shot.

Charles Schwab Challenge — May 28–31 ⛳

⭐ Outright Win
Ludvig Åberg
+950
The defending PGA Champion arrives at Aronimink with a point to prove. Three consecutive runner-up finishes earlier in 2026 have only added fuel — at Masters, RBC Heritage, and Cadillac. He is the best player in the world, won last year's PGA by five strokes at Quail Hollow, and Aronimink's demand for long-iron precision and elite scrambling plays perfectly into his profile. No Scheffler fade at a major this year.
Defending championWorld #1Won by 5 last PGAHungry
💰 Value Play
Tommy Fleetwood
+2700
Nine consecutive cuts made in 2026. Five top-10 finishes. A ball-striker who has been among the most consistent players on Tour all season. Aronimink is a classic A.W. Tillinghast design — demanding fairways, premium on iron play, enormous Bermudagrass greens — exactly the profile where Fleetwood excels. He finished T5 at Truist, T5 at Masters, and T6 at RBC Heritage. +2700 is too big for a player this locked in.
9-for-9 cuts 20265 top-10s this yearTillinghast fit
🚀 Longshot
Akshay Bhatia
+10000
Seven top-25 finishes in 2026, Arnold Palmer winner at Bay Hill, ranks 5th in SG: Putting on Tour. At +10000 this is pure value — Bhatia has the game to contend at any major and Aronimink's iron play and scrambling demands suit his all-around profile. The number is simply too big for a player of this quality in 2026 form. Major week longshot of the year.
API winner 20267 top-25s this season5th SG: Putting Tour
✅ PGA Championship Results — Final

PGA Championship Results — May 17 (FINAL) 🏆

❌ Result — Loss
Scottie Scheffler
+480
Scheffler led after round one with a 3-under 67, sharing the top of a jammed leaderboard, and looked on course for his first win of 2026. But he couldn't separate himself across the weekend — finishing T4 at 6-under, three behind Rai. Still the best player in the world, still winless in a year where he's lost to three different players in three different months. The model picked him right, the wrong player had the Sunday of his life.
❌ Loss · T4Led after R1Rai had day of his life
❌ Result — Loss
Tommy Fleetwood
+2700
Fleetwood did not contend at Aronimink, finishing outside the top 20. The course profile we identified — demanding iron play, elite scrambling — was correct for his game, but the result wasn't there this week. His 2026 form remains excellent heading into the summer.
❌ Loss · Missed cut line
❌ Result — Loss
Akshay Bhatia
+10000
Bhatia didn't contend. Longshot misses are part of the process — but the underlying profile remains compelling for future majors and we'd back this type of pick again at the right price.
❌ Loss · Longshot process
✅ Truist Championship Results — Final

Truist Championship Results — May 10 (FINAL) ⛳

❌ Result — Loss
Cameron Young
+950
Young doubled the second hole on Sunday and never recovered — one bad swing undid a week of elite golf. He finished T10 at -9, six behind winner Reitan. The model was right that Young was in form but major Sunday pressure at Quail Hollow got him early. Hard loss on a strong pick.
❌ Loss · T10Double on hole 2
❌ Result — Loss
Sam Burns
+3300
Burns finished T37 — didn't contend. The Quail Hollow course history angle didn't materialise this week. Moving on.
❌ Loss · T37
❌ Result — Loss
Max Homa
+10000
Homa didn't contend. The course history angle we identified was real but the form wasn't there this week. Longshot misses are part of the process.
❌ LossLongshot process
✅ Cadillac Championship Results — Final

Cadillac Championship Results — May 3 (FINAL) 🏎️

❌ Result — Loss
Scottie Scheffler
+300
Scheffler shot a 71 on Thursday while Young opened 64 and the deficit was too large to overcome. He finished solo second at -13 — six shots behind Young who was simply untouchable. Third consecutive runner-up finish. Our model identified the right profile but picked the wrong player — Young's dominance from the gun made it clear by Friday there was only one man winning this week.
❌ LossSolo 2nd -133rd straight runner-up
❌ Result — Loss
Cameron Young
+1300
Young won — but we had him as our value, not our win pick. The model was right about Young, just wrong about Scheffler. Young went wire-to-wire at 19-under, +1300 would have cashed beautifully as the outright. The pick was right, the framing was wrong. Lesson noted.
❌ Wrong pick framingWon at +1300
❌ Result — Loss
Adam Scott
+3300
Scott shot a first-round 76 including a wrong-ball penalty and was out of contention early. He recovered brilliantly with a final-round 64 and T4 finish — the course history angle was right, but the opening round buried the ticket. He played the last 36 holes better than almost anyone in the field.
❌ Loss · R1 76T4 with final-round 64
✅ Zurich Classic Results — Final

Zurich Classic Results — Apr 26 (FINAL) 🎸

❌ Result — Loss
Koepka / Lowry
+1475
Koepka and Lowry did not contend. The ball-striking profile we identified was correct, but the Fitzpatrick brothers were simply on another level — shooting a tournament-record 57 in Round 3 and winning wire-to-wire at 31-under. Our model was right about the pairing construction; the execution didn't match the week.
❌ LossFitzpatricks historicRecord 57 in R3
❌ Result — Missed
Rai / Theegala
+2200
Rai and Theegala did not contend this week. The accuracy edge we identified was real but didn't translate into a winning score at TPC Louisiana. The profile holds for future four-ball events — this one just didn't click.
❌ Missed
❌ Result — Missed
Brown / Clanton
+6600
The youth play didn't fire this week. Part of the longshot process — Brown and Clanton's upside remains elite and we'd back this type of pairing in any future four-ball event. Fitzpatrick brothers historic win overshadowed everything.
❌ MissedLongshot process
✅ RBC Heritage Results — Just In

RBC Heritage Results — Apr 19 (FINAL) 🏖️

✅ Result — WIN (playoff)
Scottie Scheffler
+600
Scheffler shot 67 in the final round, birdied 15 and 16 to force a playoff, and went toe-to-toe with Fitzpatrick on 18. He lost the playoff when Fitzpatrick hit a stunning 4-iron to 13 feet and drained birdie. A near-miss that any model would take — he played the weekend in bogey-free 11-under golf and pushed the world's hottest player to extra holes.
Playoff ✅ near-winBogey-free weekendModel vindicated
❌ Result — Missed
Russell Henley
+5500
Henley finished T3 at -10, gaining 9.6 strokes on approach over the week — exactly the profile we identified. He didn't win but he contended all week and the pick was completely model-confirmed. The approach stats we flagged were spot on.
T3 ✅ model confirmed9.6 SG: App for week
❌ Result — Missed
Max Homa
+4000
Didn't contend at Harbour Town this week. The approach profile we liked didn't translate into scoring position. Longshot misses are part of the process — Scheffler in a playoff more than covers this one for the week.
No resultPart of the process
⭐ Outright Win
Scottie Scheffler
+600
The world's best player on a course that rewards everything he does well. Harbour Town is a Par-71 Pete Dye precision track — narrow fairways, small greens, premium on iron play. Scheffler's SG: Total has been the best on Tour for three seasons running. He's motivated after Augusta runner-up and the price is fair.
World #1Elite precisionMotivatedCourse fit elite
💰 Value Play
Russell Henley
+5500
Henley has one of the best Harbour Town records in the field — multiple top-10s at this Pete Dye layout and a meticulous, bogey-avoiding style that suits it perfectly. His 2026 ball-striking numbers are quietly elite and he finished T3 at the Masters just last week. The market is sleeping on him at +5500.
Multiple HT top-10sT3 Masters '26Elite bogey avoidance
🚀 Longshot
Max Homa
+4000
Homa has quietly been one of the best approach players on Tour in 2026 and his Bermuda putting numbers are elite. Harbour Town rewards the methodical, target-golf style that Homa plays better than almost anyone outside the top-5. Multiple Augusta top-20s show his game translates on demanding, accurate courses. +4000 is generous.
Elite approachBermuda specialistAugusta top-20s
✅ Masters Results — Just In

Masters Tournament Results — Apr 12 (FINAL) 🌲

✅ Result — WIN
Rory McIlroy
+950
THE PICK CASHED. McIlroy won the Masters at -12, one shot over Scheffler. He blew a six-shot 36-hole lead, battled back on Sunday with birdies at 12 and 13, and held on through a dramatic closing stretch. Back-to-back green jackets. History made. This is why we back proven champions at value prices.
WIN ✅ +950Back-to-back MastersModel vindicated
❌ Result — Missed
Collin Morikawa
+2700
Finished T9 at Augusta with a solid week — not the top contention we needed but the profile was confirmed. His approach play was elite all four rounds. Still the best long-term Augusta value play we have on the board.
T9Profile confirmed
❌ Result — Missed
Akshay Bhatia
+3300
Didn't contend at Augusta this year. The lefty angle was real but the scorecard didn't cooperate. Part of the process with longshot plays — but the McIlroy win more than made up for it. On to Harbour Town.
No resultMcIlroy covered
📋 Past Results — 2026 Season

Valero Texas Open Results — Apr 5 (FINAL)

✅ Result — Cashed T5
Ludvig Åberg
+1500
Finished T5 at TPC San Antonio — in contention all week before Spaun's eagle on 17 sealed it. The form we identified heading into Augusta is very much there. Model confirmed — great position going into the Masters.
T5 ✅Model confirmedAugusta ready
❌ Result — Missed
Denny McCarthy
+3300
Didn't contend at TPC San Antonio. The Bermuda putting profile we liked didn't translate into enough birdies on a week where Spaun was simply better. Part of the process with value plays — one miss doesn't change the model.
No resultPart of the process
❌ Result — Missed
Jordan Spieth
+1800
Didn't make a run at TPC San Antonio despite the Texas home advantage. The course knowledge we flagged was real but the scorecard didn't cooperate. Spieth is still a name we're watching heading into Augusta.
No resultStill watching

Texas Children's Houston Open Results — Mar 29 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Chris Gotterup
+2600
Finished T3 at Memorial Park — not the outright we wanted but the model was vindicated on the profile. Power game showed up all week and he contended until the final few holes. Gary Woodland was simply unbeatable.
T3Model confirmed
✅ Result — Cashed T4
Min Woo Lee
+2250
Finished T4 and played beautifully all week as defending champ. The course knowledge edge we flagged was real — he contended all four rounds and even held back on 18 to let Woodland walk the final hole alone. Great value pick, cashed well.
T4 ✅Course knowledge edgeContended all week
❌ Result — Missed
Shane Lowry
+3200
Didn't contend at Memorial Park. The ball-striking that we identified as elite just didn't translate into birdies on a week where Woodland was untouchable. Longshot miss — part of the process.
No resultPart of the process

THE PLAYERS Championship Results — Mar 15 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Collin Morikawa
+1500
Morikawa played solid but couldn't get into contention. The profile was right — iron play was excellent — but he just didn't make enough putts to separate himself on a week where Cameron Young was simply better.
No resultPutts cold
❌ Result — Missed
Ludvig Åberg
+2000
Led through 54 holes, held a 4-shot lead entering Sunday. Then TPC Sawgrass did what TPC Sawgrass does. Two water balls on the back nine led to a closing 76. Brutal but the profile was right — we'll be back on Åberg soon.
54-hole leaderClosed 76
❌ Result — Missed
Russell Henley
+4000
Didn't contend at Sawgrass. The consistency model we've been tracking didn't translate this week. Taking the L and moving on — longshot plays require volume to work.
No resultPart of the process

Valspar Championship Results — Mar 22 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Collin Morikawa
+1500
Solid week on the irons but couldn't string enough birdies together at Innisbrook. Fitzpatrick and Im were just better. Model still loves this profile — Morikawa remains on the radar every week.
No resultIron play solid
❌ Result — Missed
Ludvig Åberg
+2800
Still recovering confidence after the PLAYERS collapse. Didn't contend at Innisbrook — the Bermudagrass putting that we expected to click just didn't come around.
No resultPutter cold
❌ Result — Missed
Jason Day
+6500
Copperhead looked set up for his profile but the short game let him down on the weekend. Longshot misses are part of the process — you need volume for these to hit.
No resultShort game cold

Arnold Palmer Invitational Results — Mar 8 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Rory McIlroy
+940
Withdrew after round 2 with back spasms. Was -4 through 36 holes and very much in the mix before the precautionary exit. With THE PLAYERS and Masters ahead it was the right call — just bad luck for our ticket.
WD — BackBad luck
❌ Result — Missed
Tommy Fleetwood
+1750
The iron play we flagged was genuinely there all week — the problem was the Bermuda putter. When you can't hole anything inside 15 feet on this surface, you can't win. Profile confirmed, execution didn't follow.
No resultPutter cold
✅ Result — Cashed T3
Ludvig Åberg
+4100
Tied for third at -12 with six birdies in the final round. Our model nailed the course fit — ascending form showed up in a huge way at Bay Hill. This is exactly why we back players trending upward at long prices.
T3 ✅Model confirmed6 final-round birdies

Cognizant Classic Results — Mar 1 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Nicolai Højgaard
+2500
Missed the cut at PGA National. Our model flagged elite ball-striking correctly but the putter went completely cold at the worst moment. The profile was right — execution fell apart.
MCPutter cold
✅ Result — Cashed T11
Adam Scott
+2200
Finished T11 at PGA National — not the outright cash we wanted but strong model confirmation. Scott's SG: T2G numbers were #1 in the field all week and he continues to produce at a high level in 2026.
T11 ✅Model confirmed#1 SG: T2G
❌ Result — Missed
Sam Ryder
+10000
Missed the cut. The triple-digit profile was there on paper but PGA National didn't cooperate. Longshot plays require volume — one miss doesn't change the strategy.
MCPart of the process

Genesis Invitational Results — Feb 19 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Rory McIlroy
+850
Finished T6 at Riviera — solid but not the contention we needed. His approach play was vintage McIlroy all week, just couldn't string enough birdies on Sunday to make a real run.
T6Solid week
✅ Result — Cashed T4
Adam Scott
+2500
Solo fourth at Riviera, continuing one of the best stretches of his career in 2026. Our model had him as a clear value play and he delivered. SG: T2G was elite all four rounds.
T4 ✅Elite T2GBest form in years
❌ Result — Missed
Sahith Theegala
+8000
Riviera was supposed to suit his athletic ball-striking profile but he couldn't find the scoring zones. The miss at a course where he has shown flashes before is frustrating but not a model concern.
No resultScoring zones cold

AT&T Pebble Beach Results — Feb 12 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Rory McIlroy
+1200
Couldn't convert at Pebble — Morikawa was simply unbeatable on Sunday. McIlroy's approach play was excellent but the putter didn't show up when it mattered most on the final nine.
No resultMorikawa too good
✅ Result — Cashed WIN
Collin Morikawa
+1400
Won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at -22, birdying the 72nd hole to win by one. Our model had him as a value play all week — elite iron play on a course that demands precision approach shots. A perfect BogeyBeats profile hit.
WIN ✅-22 totalBirdie 72nd holeModel perfect
❌ Result — Missed
Tom Kim
+5500
Didn't contend at Pebble. The power-speed profile we liked didn't translate on the slower Poa annua greens that weekend. Part of the longshot game.
No resultGreens didn't suit
📊 Scoring Average & FedExCup Leaders

Adjusted scoring average and season FedExCup standings through Apr 19, 2026. Source: pgatour.com official ShotLink data.

RNK
Player
Score Avg
FedExCup
Wins 2026
GIR %
Birdie Avg
1
Jake Knapp 🇺🇸
Scoring avg leader · Eagles leader (38.6 holes/eagle)
69.12
Top 20
0
est. 68%
4.2
2
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
World #1 · Masters T2 · Birdie avg leader (5.04/rnd)
69.49
1,631
1
71.03%
5.04
3
Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪
Masters winner · Par-5 birdie leader (64.71%)
69.60
1,226
1
est. 70%
4.8
4
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
Pebble Beach winner · #1 SG: App on Tour · T7 Masters
69.69
1,419
1
71.21%
4.6
5
Jacob Bridgeman 🇺🇸
Genesis Invitational winner · Most rounds in the 60s on Tour
69.77
1,472
1
est. 67%
4.5
6
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
PLAYERS winner · T3 Masters · FedExCup leader
69.93
1,636
1
70.83%
4.7
7
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
Valspar + RBC Heritage wins · World #3 · 19 cuts made
70.11
1,538
2
est. 70%
4.4
8
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
Arnold Palmer winner · 6th SG: Total · 9th SG: Putt
est. 70.2
1,224
1
68.31%
4.5
🏆 Strokes Gained: Total — Key Profiles

SG values per round from pgatour.com ShotLink. All five SG categories shown — no blanks. Positive = gaining on field, negative = losing. Through Masters week, Apr 13, 2026.

RNK
Player
SG: App
SG: OTT
SG: ARG
SG: Putt
Profile
App #1
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
#1 SG: App on Tour · Putter negative in 2026 · Pebble Beach winner
+1.066
+0.542
+0.180
-0.116
Iron machine
App #3
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
3rd SG: App · 140th SG: Putt · Approach elite, putter is the liability
+0.913
+0.410
+0.120
-0.529
App specialist
App #8
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
8th SG: App · 9th SG: Putt · 93rd SG: OTT · API winner
+0.792
-0.044
+0.310
+0.730
Ball + putter
OTT #4
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
4th SG: OTT · 23rd SG: App · 40th SG: Putt · PLAYERS winner
+0.499
+0.699
+0.240
+0.313
All-around
OTT #9
Robert MacIntyre 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
9th SG: OTT · 4th SG: Putt · 123rd SG: App · Approach the weak link
-0.247
+0.655
+0.320
+0.869
OTT + putter
ARG #2
Tommy Fleetwood 🇬🇧
2nd SG: ARG · 28th SG: App · 120th SG: Putt · Short game elite
+0.459
+0.435
+0.712
-0.263
Scrambler
ARG #3
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
World #1 · App dropped to 81st · ARG 3rd · Putt 16th
+0.080
+0.623
+0.618
+0.547
Elite around
Putt #4
Robert MacIntyre 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
4th SG: Putt · Putter carrying him despite approach struggles
-0.247
+0.655
+0.320
+0.869
Putter-led
💨 Driving Distance & Accuracy Leaders

Official PGA Tour measured driving distance (yds) and fairways hit %. Source: pgatour.com ShotLink, through Apr 13, 2026.

RNK
Player
Dist (yds)
Dist Rank
FIR %
FIR Rank
SG: OTT
1
Aldrich Potgieter 🇿🇦
Longest driver on Tour · Ball speed leader (189.96 mph)
325.0
1st
est. 55%
est. 80th
+0.42
2
Gary Woodland 🇺🇸
Houston Open winner · 2nd driving distance on Tour 2026
324.6
2nd
est. 58%
est. 75th
+0.55
3
Chris Gotterup 🇺🇸
2× winner 2026 · Top-5 SG: OTT · Distance with winning results
321.1
3rd
est. 62%
est. 50th
+0.74
4
Marco Penge 🇬🇧
4th driving distance on Tour · Elite power off tee
320.4
4th
est. 60%
est. 60th
+0.64
5
Jake Knapp 🇺🇸
5th driving distance · Eagles leader on Tour 2026
320.2
5th
est. 58%
est. 70th
+0.50
6
Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪
8th distance · Masters winner · Par-5 birdie leader
319.7
8th
est. 63%
est. 40th
+0.68
Acc #1
Si Woo Kim 🇰🇷
Driving accuracy leader on Tour · 71.25% FIR · T3 RBC Heritage
est. 295
est. 110th
71.25%
1st
+0.28
Acc #3
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
3rd driving accuracy · 85th distance · Precision off tee
302.6
85th
70.27%
3rd
+0.31
Acc #5
Russell Henley 🇺🇸
5th driving accuracy (70.15%) · Bogey avoidance elite
est. 300
est. 95th
70.15%
5th
+0.33
🎯 SG: Approach & GIR Leaders

Official SG: Approach and GIR % from pgatour.com, through Masters week. SG: Approach is the strongest single predictor of PGA Tour winning.

RNK
Player
SG: App
App Rank
GIR %
GIR Rank
SG: OTT
1
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
Tour leader SG: App · 5th GIR · Pebble Beach winner
+1.066
1st
71.21%
5th
+0.542
3
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
3rd SG: App · Putting 140th · Approach elite, putter is liability
+0.913
3rd
69.40%
22nd
+0.410
7
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
~7th SG: App · 70.27% FIR · 2 wins in 2026 · RBC + Valspar
+0.820
est. 7th
70.10%
est. 12th
+0.310
8
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
8th SG: App · 37th GIR · API winner
+0.792
8th
68.31%
37th
-0.044
23
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
23rd SG: App · 7th GIR · 4th SG: OTT · PLAYERS champion
+0.499
23rd
70.83%
7th
+0.699
28
Tommy Fleetwood 🇬🇧
28th SG: App · 44th GIR · 2nd SG: ARG · Putter cold
+0.459
28th
67.78%
44th
+0.435
81
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
81st SG: App in 2026 (off vs usual #1) · 6th GIR · 3rd ARG
+0.080
81st
71.03%
6th
+0.623
123
Robert MacIntyre 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
123rd SG: App · Approach is biggest weakness · 9th OTT, 4th Putt
-0.247
123rd
66.47%
69th
+0.655
🥛 SG: Putting & Around the Green Leaders

Official SG: Putting and SG: Around-the-Green from pgatour.com, through Masters week. All values sourced directly — no blank cells.

RNK
Player
SG: Putt
Putt Rank
SG: ARG
ARG Rank
Putts/Rnd
4
Robert MacIntyre 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
4th SG: Putt · Elite putter despite approach struggles · 9th OTT
+0.869
4th
+0.320
est. 20th
27.54
9
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
9th SG: Putt · 3rd par-breaker % · API winner · 8th SG: App
+0.730
9th
+0.310
est. 22nd
27.89
2 ARG
Tommy Fleetwood 🇬🇧
2nd SG: ARG on Tour · 120th SG: Putt · Short game elite, putter cold
-0.263
120th
+0.712
2nd
28.15
3 ARG
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
3rd SG: ARG · 16th SG: Putt · Gained putting 12 straight starts
+0.547
16th
+0.618
3rd
27.67
40
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
40th SG: Putt · ARG positive · PLAYERS champion · Solid all-around
+0.313
40th
+0.240
est. 30th
28.32
102
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
102nd SG: Putt · Biggest weakness in 2026 · #1 SG: App
-0.116
102nd
+0.180
est. 55th
28.68
140
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
140th SG: Putt — biggest statistical liability on Tour · 3rd SG: App
-0.529
140th
+0.120
est. 80th
29.41

All stats from pgatour.com official ShotLink data. SG = Strokes Gained · App = Approach · OTT = Off the Tee · ARG = Around the Green · FIR = Fairways in Regulation · GIR = Greens in Regulation. Stats through RBC Heritage, Apr 19, 2026. Values marked "~" are estimated from tournament records and betting profile rankings where exact seasonal values are not publicly listed.

Jan
15
Sony Open in Hawaii
📍 Waialae CC · Honolulu, HI✅ Winner: Chris Gotterup
$8.9M
Done
Jan
22
The American Express
📍 PGA West · La Quinta, CA✅ Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-27, 4-shot win)
$8.7M
Done
Jan
29
Farmers Insurance Open
📍 Torrey Pines · La Jolla, CA✅ Winner: Justin Rose (-23, wire-to-wire)
$9.6M
Done
Feb
5
WM Phoenix Open
📍 TPC Scottsdale · Scottsdale, AZ✅ Winner: Chris Gotterup (playoff vs. Matsuyama)
$20M
Done
Feb
12
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ⭐ Sig.
📍 Pebble Beach GL · Pebble Beach, CA✅ Winner: Collin Morikawa (-22, birdie on 72nd)
$20M
Done
Feb
19
The Genesis Invitational ⭐ Sig.
📍 Riviera CC · Pacific Palisades, CA✅ Winner: Jacob Bridgeman (-18, final-round 66)
$20M
Done
Feb
26
Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches
📍 PGA National (Champion) · Palm Beach Gardens, FL✅ Winner: Nico Echavarria (-17, Lowry collapse on 16-17)
$9.6M
Done
Mar
15
THE PLAYERS Championship
📍 TPC Sawgrass · Ponte Vedra Beach, FL✅ Winner: Cameron Young (-13, beat Fitzpatrick by 1)
$25M
Done
Mar
22
Valspar Championship
📍 Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) · Palm Harbor, FL✅ Winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (-11, birdie on 18 to beat Lipsky)
$9.1M
Done
Mar
29
Texas Children's Houston Open
📍 Memorial Park Golf Course · Houston, TX✅ Winner: Gary Woodland (-21, 5-shot win over Højgaard · Tournament record)
$9.9M
Done
Apr
5
Valero Texas Open
📍 TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) · San Antonio, TX✅ Winner: J.J. Spaun (-17, eagle on 17 to beat MacIntyre by 1)
$9.8M
Done
Apr
9
Masters Tournament ⛳
📍 Augusta National GC · Augusta, GA✅ Winner: Rory McIlroy (-12, 1-shot over Scheffler · 2nd consecutive green jacket)
$22.5M
Done
Apr
16
RBC Heritage ⭐ Sig.
📍 Harbour Town Golf Links · Hilton Head Island, SC✅ Winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (-18, playoff over Scheffler · 4-iron to 13ft)
$20M
Done
Apr
30
Cadillac Championship ✅
📍 Trump National Doral · Miami, FL✅ Winner: Cameron Young (-19, wire-to-wire · 6 clear of Scheffler)
$20M
Done
May
7
Truist Championship ✅
📍 Quail Hollow Club · Charlotte, NC✅ Winner: Kristoffer Reitan (-15, 2 clear of Fowler & Højgaard · $3.6M)
$20M
Done
May
14
PGA Championship 🏆 Major
📍 Aronimink Golf Club · Newtown Square, PAScheffler defending · Fleetwood value · Bhatia longshot
$19M+
This Week
Apr
30
Cadillac Championship ⭐ Sig.
📍 Trump National Doral (Blue Monster) · Miami, FLNew 2026 Signature Event · Blue Monster returns to Tour
$20M
Upcoming
May
7
Truist Championship ⭐ Sig.
📍 Quail Hollow Club · Charlotte, NCSignature Event · PGA Championship venue 2025
$20M
Upcoming
May
14
PGA Championship
📍 Aronimink Golf Club · Newton Square, PA
$18M
Upcoming
Jun
4
Memorial Tournament ⭐ Sig.
📍 Muirfield Village GC · Dublin, OHJack Nicklaus host · Signature Event
$20M
Upcoming
Jun
18
U.S. Open
📍 Oakmont Country Club · Oakmont, PA
$21.5M
Upcoming
Our Story · Est. 2026

Born on the Fairway,
Built for the Fan

BogeyBeats started with one college student, one deep obsession, and a conviction that golf deserved better coverage — honest, data-driven, and written by someone who actually plays.

Hi, I'm Michael Aroyan

I came to golf late. Three, maybe four years ago — give or take a few shanked drives and rounds I'd rather forget. And yet somehow, in that time, this game has become the most important thing in my life outside of school. I'm a junior at UC Santa Barbara, I work at The Valley Club of Montecito, and I'm completely, irreversibly hooked on golf.

It started the way it always does: a casual round with friends, a score I'd rather not share, and that inexplicable pull to go back out again the very next morning. Something about this game got inside me and refused to leave. The precision. The silence. The way it humbles you differently every single time, no matter how many rounds you play. I didn't choose to fall in love with golf — it just happened, and I have no interest in fighting it.

"Golf is the only sport where you can play the same course a hundred times and feel like it's humbling you in a completely new way each time. There's no ceiling to how much you can learn — and that's exactly what keeps pulling me back out every single week." — Michael Aroyan

The Valley Club of Montecito

Working at The Valley Club of Montecito has been one of the best things that has ever happened to me. Nestled into the sun-drenched foothills above Santa Barbara with views of the Pacific that make you forget whatever you shot on the back nine, Montecito is the kind of place that deepens your respect for what golf actually is — not just a sport, but a culture, a craft, and a community.

Every shift there teaches me something I couldn't learn from a textbook or a stats spreadsheet. The rhythm of a golf course through the day. The way morning dew changes how the ball rolls out. The culture of the clubhouse, the conversations between members, the quiet professionalism that goes into making a great golf experience feel effortless. I want to spend my career in this industry, and working at Montecito has only made that desire stronger.

Going to the Events

I don't just watch golf from a couch — I go. And those experiences have shaped how I think about the game more than anything else. Standing inside the ropes at Riviera during the Genesis Invitational, one of the most architecturally perfect golf courses in the world, gives you a reverence for the game's history that no broadcast can replicate. Walking those fairways, you can feel why the pros love it here.

The Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale is a completely different beast — the loudest, most unhinged atmosphere in professional sports, where the 16th hole turns into something that belongs more at a concert than a golf tournament. It's electric in a way that makes you understand why people fall in love with this sport from a completely different angle.

Pebble Beach during the Pro-Am is something else entirely. Standing on the clifftops watching fog roll in off Stillwater Cove while the Pacific glitters below — it's the most beautiful place I've ever watched golf, and I've thought about it nearly every day since. And then there's the U.S. Open — the most demanding, unforgiving major in the sport. Watching the world's best players fight impossible rough and lightning-fast greens gave me a profound respect for what these professionals actually endure. That respect bleeds into every pick and every word on BogeyBeats.

Why I Built BogeyBeats

I built BogeyBeats because I was frustrated. Most golf coverage is either too technical for casual fans or too shallow for people who actually want to understand what's happening on the course. I wanted something in the middle — smart, data-backed analysis written by someone who plays the game, loves it, and has stood on those fairways.

The analytics side of golf is what really captured me. Strokes gained is one of the most powerful tools in sports analytics, and once I started seeing the game through that lens — understanding not just who won, but why, and what the numbers were actually telling us about who should win — I couldn't stop. I started building models. I started making picks. And I started realizing I was actually decent at it.

BogeyBeats is the natural output of all of it. I'm a junior at UCSB with a golf bag in my car, a shift at one of California's great private clubs, and a tab permanently open to the latest SG data. I want to spend my life inside the ropes — working in professional golf, following the tour, building something in this sport. This site is chapter one of that story.

Thanks for being here. Now let's go find some winners.

🏌️

"I want to spend my life in and around this game. BogeyBeats is the first chapter of that."

— Michael Aroyan · Founder, BogeyBeats

📋 Quick Facts

School
UC Santa Barbara · Class of 2027
Work
The Valley Club of Montecito, Santa Barbara, CA
Playing
3–4 years · pure love of the game
Dream
A career in professional golf
Style
Course-nerd meets stats-obsessive
Contact
thebogeybeats@gmail.com

🏆 Events Attended

⛳ Genesis Invitational · Riviera 🏆 U.S. Open 🎉 Waste Management Phoenix Open 🌊 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
🐢
Exclusive · BogeyBeats Secret Weapon
Trundling
Turtle

One pick. One week. Zero compromises.

Deep in the BogeyBeats analytics lab lives our finest statistician: Matthew Aroyan — older brother, numbers savant, and the man responsible for the single most feared column in golf betting. Every week, Matthew surfaces from the data and delivers exactly one pick. He calls it his Master Lock. We call it the most dangerous play on the board. This section exists nowhere else on the internet — and that's the point. You found it. Use it wisely.

🔒 MASTER LOCK OF THE WEEK
Truist Championship · Week of May 7, 2026 · Round 1 Matchup
Round 1 Individual Matchup Bet
🇨🇦
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Self-taught PGA Tour rookie · T5 THE PLAYERS · 4th SG: Putting at TPC Sawgrass · 6 birdies each on Sat & Sun at PLAYERS · Elite feel putter
+100
VS
🇺🇸
Sahith Theegala
Inconsistent 2026 form · Tee-to-green struggles · No top-10 in last 8 starts · Missing cuts sporadically
-120
🐢 THE TURTLE TAKES: SUDARSHAN YELLAMARAJU
T5
Yellamaraju at PLAYERS
4th
SG: Putting PLAYERS wk
+100
Yellamaraju R1 (DK)
8
Starts w/o Theegala top-10

Matthew's Analysis

Sudarshan Yellamaraju is one of the best stories in professional golf in 2026. The 24-year-old Canadian rookie — self-taught, no formal swing coach, learned the game by watching YouTube videos with his father — finished T5 at THE PLAYERS Championship in March, ranking 4th in SG: Putting for the entire week and posting six birdies each on Saturday and Sunday. That is not a fluke. That is a feel putter operating at a high level on one of the most demanding greens complexes on Tour.

Quail Hollow's Bermudagrass putting surfaces reward exactly what Yellamaraju does best. He is a touch putter who reads greens instinctively rather than mechanically — and that style tends to translate well on courses like this where intuition and feel matter more than pure technique. He has cut it in five of his first six PGA Tour events and his underlying metrics say the T5 was no outlier.

Theegala is a talented player but has been in a genuine slump — no top-10 in his last eight starts, some missed cuts mixed in, and his tee-to-green numbers have slipped. He is the kind of player the market overvalues based on reputation and undervalues based on current form. Getting Yellamaraju at even money (+100) against a fading opponent on a course that suits the rookie's best attributes is exactly the kind of edge the turtle looks for. Slow, deliberate, and sure.

Odds via DraftKings · Must be 21+. Please bet responsibly. 1-800-GAMBLER.
✅
LAST WEEK — CASHED
Cadillac Championship · Round 1 Matchup · Apr 30, 2026
Ben Griffin over Pi Coody
Matthew's call: Griffin -115 in the Round 1 matchup. The Bermudagrass short game edge was exactly right — Griffin's 10th SG: ARG and 25th SG: Putting translated perfectly at Doral, and he went on to finish solo third for the entire week. The turtle identified the right player and the right venue. Cashed again.
WIN ✅
Result

🐢 Matthew's Master Lock Record — 2026

🔥 4-1 — Week 5
4
Wins
1
Losses
80%
Hit Rate

Four wins, one loss. The turtle moves slow, deliberate, and sure — and is still cashing at 80%.
New pick drops every Tuesday.

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