Who won THE PLAYERS Championship 2026?

Cameron Young won THE PLAYERS Championship 2026 at TPC Sawgrass at 13-under par, holding off Matt Fitzpatrick by one shot as Ludvig Åberg collapsed from a four-shot 54-hole lead with a closing 76.

Who won the 2026 Valspar Championship?

Matt Fitzpatrick won the 2026 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort at 11-under par, birdying the 72nd hole to beat David Lipsky by one. Sungjae Im led through 54 holes but closed in 74.

Who are the favorites for the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?

Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at Memorial Park at +270. BogeyBeats pick is Chris Gotterup at +1800. Min Woo Lee defends at +2250.

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Masters?

Scottie Scheffler is the Masters 2026 favorite at -220. Rory McIlroy is the defending champion at around +600. Cameron Young has emerged as a contender at approximately +1400 following his PLAYERS win.

BogeyBeats | PGA Tour Golf News, Betting Odds & Expert Picks 2026

⭐ Outright Win

Scottie Scheffler

+265

The World No. 1 is in the 3M Open field for the first time in his career — and the first world No. 1 to play TPC Twin Cities since Brooks Koepka in 2019. He arrives four days after a T4 at Royal Birkdale with his ball-striking as sharp as it has been all season. The one caveat is that this course hands the entire field wedges, which compresses his usual edge, and he has never seen it. But the gulf between Scheffler and this field is enormous. If the putter is even average, he wins going away.

World #1T4 at The Open3M Open debutHuge field gap

💰 Value Play

Maverick McNealy

+2700

McNealy is the third choice on the board and the only player besides defending champion Kurt Kitayama priced shorter than +3000 — a signal the market rates him seriously in this field. TPC Twin Cities rewards precision approach play over raw power despite its generous width, because the prairie grass lining those fairways carries a genuine lost-ball penalty and water is in play on more than half the holes. McNealy's accurate iron game and steady putter fit that profile well, and with the FedExCup cutline closing in two weeks he has every reason to press.

Third choice on boardApproach precisionCutline motivation

🚀 Longshot

Max Homa

+5000

Homa's solo second at the John Deere Classic three weeks ago was his best result in nearly two years and the clearest evidence yet that his game has genuinely returned after two lean seasons. TPC Twin Cities is a birdie-fest where winning scores have ranged from 15-under to 24-under since 2019 — exactly the aggressive, momentum-driven golf that suits a player rediscovering his confidence. At +5000 in a field this wide open, Homa is precisely the kind of longshot worth backing.

Runner-up John DeereForm genuinely backBirdie-fest fit

❌ Result — Loss

Chris Gotterup

+3500

Gotterup arrived at Royal Birkdale in the form of his life — three wins in 2026 and a runner-up finish at the Scottish Open the week before. But the Claret Jug went to Ryan Fox and Gotterup could not find the same magic on the Birkdale links. The read on his form was correct; the week just did not come together on the biggest stage.

❌ LossForm was real

❌ Result — Loss

Robert MacIntyre

+3300

The Scot did not factor at Royal Birkdale. His links pedigree and home-soil comfort made him a sensible play in a major staged on this coastline, but he never got into contention over the weekend.

❌ Loss · Did not contend

⚡ Result — Led R1, T28

Jackson Suber

+15000

The longshot of the week nearly delivered something extraordinary. Suber shot his way to the outright first-round lead at Royal Birkdale — a genuine thrill at 150-to-1 — before drifting over the weekend to finish T28. It was not a cash, but it was the kind of ticket that keeps you glued to a leaderboard for four days. The process on longshots is exactly this: find players who can get to the top of the board.

⚡ First-round leaderFinished T28150-1 longshot

❌ Result — Loss

Tommy Fleetwood

+2050

Fleetwood did not get it done on home soil. The course history and form case were both sound but Tom Kim's bogey-free Sunday 64 was the round of the week and nobody caught him. Fleetwood regrouped to finish T4 at The Open the following week — the consistency remains elite, the win still elusive.

❌ LossT4 at The Open after

🔥 Result — Runner-Up

Chris Gotterup

+2600

The value read was excellent. Gotterup finished at 15-under, two shots behind Tom Kim, in a share of the runner-up positions alongside Rory McIlroy — a near-cash on a defending champion we identified as underpriced at +2600. His length and ball-striking at The Renaissance Club were exactly as advertised.

🔥 Runner-up at -15Two shots backValue read validated

❌ Result — Loss

Viktor Hovland

+3600

Hovland could not carry his Travelers Championship momentum across the Atlantic. The iron-play case was strong on paper but the week did not materialise at The Renaissance Club.

❌ Loss

❌ Result — Loss

Ben Griffin

+2500

Griffin didn't contend at TPC Deere Run. The birdie-fest scoring conditions suited his game on paper, but the week didn't come together. He remains one of the more consistent players on Tour and the profile was reasonable — the results just weren't there.

❌ Loss · Did not contend

🔥 Result — 2nd Place

Max Homa

+4000

So close. Homa finished solo second, one shot behind Gotterup, in easily his best result of a bounce-back 2026 season. He was in the mix all Sunday and only Gotterup's closing 62 denied him. The BogeyBeats value read was excellent — Homa's form has genuinely turned a corner and he heads to Scotland with real momentum. A near-cash at +4000.

🔥 Solo 2ndOne shot backForm turning corner

❌ Result — Loss

Max Greyserman

+5500

Greyserman didn't factor into the final leaderboard. The longshot didn't hit this week — but his ball-striking profile keeps him in the conversation at birdie-friendly venues going forward.

❌ Loss · Longshot process

❌ Result — Loss

Sam Burns

+1200

Burns was in the mix but couldn't get over the line. Viktor Hovland outdueled Scottie Scheffler in a playoff to take the final Signature Event of the season. Burns' strong stretch continued but the win eluded him at River Highlands.

❌ LossHovland won in playoff

❌ Result — Loss

Ryan Gerard

+4500

Gerard didn't contend at River Highlands. The value profile was sound but the result didn't come. His steady 2026 season continues.

❌ Loss

❌ Result — Loss

Jordan Spieth

+5500

Spieth didn't factor at River Highlands. The course-history angle was reasonable but the week didn't materialize. He regroups for the Scottish Open and Open Championship.

❌ Loss · Longshot process

❌ Result — Loss

Scottie Scheffler

+480

Scheffler entered the final round six shots off the pace and made his move — surging on Saturday before a grinding Sunday left him at T4 alongside JT Thomas. He was never able to threaten Clark's wire-to-wire lead. Another major, another near-miss. The Grand Slam bid will have to wait for Royal Birkdale and beyond.

❌ Loss · T4Grand Slam still elusive

🔥 Result — 2nd Place

Sam Burns

+2800

Burns closed with a 67 — one of the best rounds of the day under incredible pressure — to finish solo second at the US Open, one shot behind Clark. It wasn't a win but it was a statement. Burns righted the wrong of his 54-hole collapse at Oakmont a year ago and proved his game is major championship caliber. We had him as our value — he very nearly cashed the win ticket.

🔥 Solo 2ndClosing 67 SundayMajor caliber form

❌ Result — Loss

Patrick Reed

+8000

Reed did not contend at Shinnecock Hills. Longshot misses are part of the process — the underlying model remains sound.

❌ Loss · Longshot process

❌ Result — Loss

Ludvig Åberg

+950

Åberg did not contend at Colonial. The statistical case was right but the results weren't there on the week. Colonial's demands for scrambling and short game creativity are slightly different from the pure iron-play profile he thrives in. He heads to Muirfield Village this week where his profile fits even better.

❌ Loss · Did not contend

✅ Result — WIN

Russell Henley

+1800

BogeyBeats cashed the value pick. Henley was exactly the player the model identified — Tour leader in scrambling, two previous top-10s at Colonial, elite bogey avoidance. He birdied 16, 17, 18 to force the playoff and drained a 5-footer on the first extra hole to win. The model works. +1800 cashed beautifully.

✅ WIN at +18004 birdies in a rowModel validated

❌ Result — Loss

Alex Smalley

+3500

Smalley finished T3 — one shot out of the playoff. The PGA momentum was real, the profile was right, and he very nearly cashed at +3500. Griffin also surged to T3. The picks were directionally correct — the win just went to our value play instead.

❌ T3 · One shot outVery close

❌ Result — Loss

Scottie Scheffler

+480

Scheffler led after round one with a 3-under 67, sharing the top of a jammed leaderboard, and looked on course for his first win of 2026. But he couldn't separate himself across the weekend — finishing T4 at 6-under, three behind Rai. Still the best player in the world, still winless in a year where he's lost to three different players in three different months. The model picked him right, the wrong player had the Sunday of his life.

❌ Loss · T4Led after R1Rai had day of his life

❌ Result — Loss

Tommy Fleetwood

+2700

Fleetwood did not contend at Aronimink, finishing outside the top 20. The course profile we identified — demanding iron play, elite scrambling — was correct for his game, but the result wasn't there this week. His 2026 form remains excellent heading into the summer.

❌ Loss · Missed cut line

❌ Result — Loss

Akshay Bhatia

+10000

Bhatia didn't contend. Longshot misses are part of the process — but the underlying profile remains compelling for future majors and we'd back this type of pick again at the right price.

❌ Loss · Longshot process

❌ Result — Loss

Cameron Young

+950

Young doubled the second hole on Sunday and never recovered — one bad swing undid a week of elite golf. He finished T10 at -9, six behind winner Reitan. The model was right that Young was in form but major Sunday pressure at Quail Hollow got him early. Hard loss on a strong pick.

❌ Loss · T10Double on hole 2

❌ Result — Loss

Sam Burns

+3300

Burns finished T37 — didn't contend. The Quail Hollow course history angle didn't materialise this week. Moving on.

❌ Loss · T37

❌ Result — Loss

Max Homa

+10000

Homa didn't contend. The course history angle we identified was real but the form wasn't there this week. Longshot misses are part of the process.

❌ LossLongshot process

❌ Result — Loss

Scottie Scheffler

+300

Scheffler shot a 71 on Thursday while Young opened 64 and the deficit was too large to overcome. He finished solo second at -13 — six shots behind Young who was simply untouchable. Third consecutive runner-up finish. Our model identified the right profile but picked the wrong player — Young's dominance from the gun made it clear by Friday there was only one man winning this week.

❌ LossSolo 2nd -133rd straight runner-up

❌ Result — Loss

Cameron Young

+1300

Young won — but we had him as our value, not our win pick. The model was right about Young, just wrong about Scheffler. Young went wire-to-wire at 19-under, +1300 would have cashed beautifully as the outright. The pick was right, the framing was wrong. Lesson noted.

❌ Wrong pick framingWon at +1300

❌ Result — Loss

Adam Scott

+3300

Scott shot a first-round 76 including a wrong-ball penalty and was out of contention early. He recovered brilliantly with a final-round 64 and T4 finish — the course history angle was right, but the opening round buried the ticket. He played the last 36 holes better than almost anyone in the field.

❌ Loss · R1 76T4 with final-round 64

❌ Result — Loss

Koepka / Lowry

+1475

Koepka and Lowry did not contend. The ball-striking profile we identified was correct, but the Fitzpatrick brothers were simply on another level — shooting a tournament-record 57 in Round 3 and winning wire-to-wire at 31-under. Our model was right about the pairing construction; the execution didn't match the week.

❌ LossFitzpatricks historicRecord 57 in R3

❌ Result — Missed

Rai / Theegala

+2200

Rai and Theegala did not contend this week. The accuracy edge we identified was real but didn't translate into a winning score at TPC Louisiana. The profile holds for future four-ball events — this one just didn't click.

❌ Missed

❌ Result — Missed

Brown / Clanton

+6600

The youth play didn't fire this week. Part of the longshot process — Brown and Clanton's upside remains elite and we'd back this type of pairing in any future four-ball event. Fitzpatrick brothers historic win overshadowed everything.

❌ MissedLongshot process

✅ Result — WIN (playoff)

Scottie Scheffler

+600

Scheffler shot 67 in the final round, birdied 15 and 16 to force a playoff, and went toe-to-toe with Fitzpatrick on 18. He lost the playoff when Fitzpatrick hit a stunning 4-iron to 13 feet and drained birdie. A near-miss that any model would take — he played the weekend in bogey-free 11-under golf and pushed the world's hottest player to extra holes.

Playoff ✅ near-winBogey-free weekendModel vindicated

❌ Result — Missed

Russell Henley

+5500

Henley finished T3 at -10, gaining 9.6 strokes on approach over the week — exactly the profile we identified. He didn't win but he contended all week and the pick was completely model-confirmed. The approach stats we flagged were spot on.

T3 ✅ model confirmed9.6 SG: App for week

❌ Result — Missed

Max Homa

+4000

Didn't contend at Harbour Town this week. The approach profile we liked didn't translate into scoring position. Longshot misses are part of the process — Scheffler in a playoff more than covers this one for the week.

No resultPart of the process

⭐ Outright Win

Scottie Scheffler

+600

The world's best player on a course that rewards everything he does well. Harbour Town is a Par-71 Pete Dye precision track — narrow fairways, small greens, premium on iron play. Scheffler's SG: Total has been the best on Tour for three seasons running. He's motivated after Augusta runner-up and the price is fair.

World #1Elite precisionMotivatedCourse fit elite

💰 Value Play

Russell Henley

+5500

Henley has one of the best Harbour Town records in the field — multiple top-10s at this Pete Dye layout and a meticulous, bogey-avoiding style that suits it perfectly. His 2026 ball-striking numbers are quietly elite and he finished T3 at the Masters just last week. The market is sleeping on him at +5500.

Multiple HT top-10sT3 Masters '26Elite bogey avoidance

🚀 Longshot

Max Homa

+4000

Homa has quietly been one of the best approach players on Tour in 2026 and his Bermuda putting numbers are elite. Harbour Town rewards the methodical, target-golf style that Homa plays better than almost anyone outside the top-5. Multiple Augusta top-20s show his game translates on demanding, accurate courses. +4000 is generous.

Elite approachBermuda specialistAugusta top-20s

✅ Result — WIN

Rory McIlroy

+950

THE PICK CASHED. McIlroy won the Masters at -12, one shot over Scheffler. He blew a six-shot 36-hole lead, battled back on Sunday with birdies at 12 and 13, and held on through a dramatic closing stretch. Back-to-back green jackets. History made. This is why we back proven champions at value prices.

WIN ✅ +950Back-to-back MastersModel vindicated

❌ Result — Missed

Collin Morikawa

+2700

Finished T9 at Augusta with a solid week — not the top contention we needed but the profile was confirmed. His approach play was elite all four rounds. Still the best long-term Augusta value play we have on the board.

T9Profile confirmed

❌ Result — Missed

Akshay Bhatia

+3300

Didn't contend at Augusta this year. The lefty angle was real but the scorecard didn't cooperate. Part of the process with longshot plays — but the McIlroy win more than made up for it. On to Harbour Town.

No resultMcIlroy covered

✅ Result — Cashed T5

Ludvig Åberg

+1500

Finished T5 at TPC San Antonio — in contention all week before Spaun's eagle on 17 sealed it. The form we identified heading into Augusta is very much there. Model confirmed — great position going into the Masters.

T5 ✅Model confirmedAugusta ready

❌ Result — Missed

Denny McCarthy

+3300

Didn't contend at TPC San Antonio. The Bermuda putting profile we liked didn't translate into enough birdies on a week where Spaun was simply better. Part of the process with value plays — one miss doesn't change the model.

No resultPart of the process

❌ Result — Missed

Jordan Spieth

+1800

Didn't make a run at TPC San Antonio despite the Texas home advantage. The course knowledge we flagged was real but the scorecard didn't cooperate. Spieth is still a name we're watching heading into Augusta.

No resultStill watching

❌ Result — Missed

Chris Gotterup

+2600

Finished T3 at Memorial Park — not the outright we wanted but the model was vindicated on the profile. Power game showed up all week and he contended until the final few holes. Gary Woodland was simply unbeatable.

T3Model confirmed

✅ Result — Cashed T4

Min Woo Lee

+2250

Finished T4 and played beautifully all week as defending champ. The course knowledge edge we flagged was real — he contended all four rounds and even held back on 18 to let Woodland walk the final hole alone. Great value pick, cashed well.

T4 ✅Course knowledge edgeContended all week

❌ Result — Missed

Shane Lowry

+3200

Didn't contend at Memorial Park. The ball-striking that we identified as elite just didn't translate into birdies on a week where Woodland was untouchable. Longshot miss — part of the process.

No resultPart of the process

❌ Result — Missed

Collin Morikawa

+1500

Morikawa played solid but couldn't get into contention. The profile was right — iron play was excellent — but he just didn't make enough putts to separate himself on a week where Cameron Young was simply better.

No resultPutts cold

❌ Result — Missed

Ludvig Åberg

+2000

Led through 54 holes, held a 4-shot lead entering Sunday. Then TPC Sawgrass did what TPC Sawgrass does. Two water balls on the back nine led to a closing 76. Brutal but the profile was right — we'll be back on Åberg soon.

54-hole leaderClosed 76

❌ Result — Missed

Russell Henley

+4000

Didn't contend at Sawgrass. The consistency model we've been tracking didn't translate this week. Taking the L and moving on — longshot plays require volume to work.

No resultPart of the process

❌ Result — Missed

Collin Morikawa

+1500

Solid week on the irons but couldn't string enough birdies together at Innisbrook. Fitzpatrick and Im were just better. Model still loves this profile — Morikawa remains on the radar every week.

No resultIron play solid

❌ Result — Missed

Ludvig Åberg

+2800

Still recovering confidence after the PLAYERS collapse. Didn't contend at Innisbrook — the Bermudagrass putting that we expected to click just didn't come around.

No resultPutter cold

❌ Result — Missed

Jason Day

+6500

Copperhead looked set up for his profile but the short game let him down on the weekend. Longshot misses are part of the process — you need volume for these to hit.

No resultShort game cold

❌ Result — Missed

Rory McIlroy

+940

Withdrew after round 2 with back spasms. Was -4 through 36 holes and very much in the mix before the precautionary exit. With THE PLAYERS and Masters ahead it was the right call — just bad luck for our ticket.

WD — BackBad luck

❌ Result — Missed

Tommy Fleetwood

+1750

The iron play we flagged was genuinely there all week — the problem was the Bermuda putter. When you can't hole anything inside 15 feet on this surface, you can't win. Profile confirmed, execution didn't follow.

No resultPutter cold

✅ Result — Cashed T3

Ludvig Åberg

+4100

Tied for third at -12 with six birdies in the final round. Our model nailed the course fit — ascending form showed up in a huge way at Bay Hill. This is exactly why we back players trending upward at long prices.

T3 ✅Model confirmed6 final-round birdies

❌ Result — Missed

Nicolai Højgaard

+2500

Missed the cut at PGA National. Our model flagged elite ball-striking correctly but the putter went completely cold at the worst moment. The profile was right — execution fell apart.

MCPutter cold

✅ Result — Cashed T11

Adam Scott

+2200

Finished T11 at PGA National — not the outright cash we wanted but strong model confirmation. Scott's SG: T2G numbers were #1 in the field all week and he continues to produce at a high level in 2026.

T11 ✅Model confirmed#1 SG: T2G

❌ Result — Missed

Sam Ryder

+10000

Missed the cut. The triple-digit profile was there on paper but PGA National didn't cooperate. Longshot plays require volume — one miss doesn't change the strategy.

MCPart of the process

❌ Result — Missed

Rory McIlroy

+850

Finished T6 at Riviera — solid but not the contention we needed. His approach play was vintage McIlroy all week, just couldn't string enough birdies on Sunday to make a real run.

T6Solid week

✅ Result — Cashed T4

Adam Scott

+2500

Solo fourth at Riviera, continuing one of the best stretches of his career in 2026. Our model had him as a clear value play and he delivered. SG: T2G was elite all four rounds.

T4 ✅Elite T2GBest form in years

❌ Result — Missed

Sahith Theegala

+8000

Riviera was supposed to suit his athletic ball-striking profile but he couldn't find the scoring zones. The miss at a course where he has shown flashes before is frustrating but not a model concern.

No resultScoring zones cold

❌ Result — Missed

Rory McIlroy

+1200

Couldn't convert at Pebble — Morikawa was simply unbeatable on Sunday. McIlroy's approach play was excellent but the putter didn't show up when it mattered most on the final nine.

No resultMorikawa too good

✅ Result — Cashed WIN

Collin Morikawa

+1400

Won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at -22, birdying the 72nd hole to win by one. Our model had him as a value play all week — elite iron play on a course that demands precision approach shots. A perfect BogeyBeats profile hit.

WIN ✅-22 totalBirdie 72nd holeModel perfect

❌ Result — Missed

Tom Kim

+5500

Didn't contend at Pebble. The power-speed profile we liked didn't translate on the slower Poa annua greens that weekend. Part of the longshot game.

No resultGreens didn't suit

3MOpenTPC Twin Cities

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