Week of Apr 16 – 19, 2026

RBC
Heritage
Harbour Town

Fresh off a stunning Masters where Rory McIlroy won back-to-back green jackets, the Tour heads to Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage Signature Event. Scheffler is our main pick, Max Homa our longshot — and the Trundling Turtle has a Round 1 matchup locked in.

This Week's Favorites
RBC Heritage 2026
📍 Harbour Town Golf Links · Hilton Head, SC · Apr 16–19 · $20M Purse
Scottie Scheffler BB PICK
🇺🇸 United States
+600
Collin Morikawa
🇺🇸 United States
+1400
Shane Lowry
🇮🇪 Ireland
+2200
Russell Henley BB VALUE
🇺🇸 United States
+5500
Max Homa LONGSHOT
🇺🇸 United States
+4000
This Week
Harbour Town Golf Links
|
Par 71 · 7,099 yds
|
Hilton Head Island, South Carolina
|
Signature Event · $20M Purse
|
🌊 Pete Dye design · Lighthouse finish
⚡ Breaking
Rory McIlroy wins back-to-back Masters — joins Nicklaus, Faldo & Tiger as only players to win consecutive green jackets  •  McIlroy -12 beats Scheffler by one shot in dramatic Sunday finish at Augusta National  •  RBC Heritage begins Thursday — Scheffler our pick, Max Homa longshot at Harbour Town  •  🐢 Trundling Turtle R1 pick: Min Woo Lee over Ryo Hisatsune at Harbour Town  •  Scottie Scheffler runner-up at Masters — remains World #1 despite second consecutive Augusta near-miss  •  Cameron Young T3 at Masters — 25-year-old now a bona fide major contender  •  Tyrrell Hatton leads clubhouse at Masters before McIlroy surges home — T3 finish  •  Rory McIlroy wins back-to-back Masters — joins Nicklaus, Faldo & Tiger as only players to win consecutive green jackets  •  McIlroy -12 beats Scheffler by one shot in dramatic Sunday finish at Augusta National  •  RBC Heritage begins Thursday — Scheffler our pick, Max Homa longshot at Harbour Town  •  🐢 Trundling Turtle R1 pick: Min Woo Lee over Ryo Hisatsune at Harbour Town  •  Scottie Scheffler runner-up at Masters — remains World #1 despite second consecutive Augusta near-miss  •  Cameron Young T3 at Masters — 25-year-old now a bona fide major contender  •  Tyrrell Hatton leads clubhouse at Masters before McIlroy surges home — T3 finish  • 
Latest News
All Stories →
All
Analysis
Results
🏆
Masters Recap
The Rory Republic: McIlroy Wins Back-to-Back Masters, Joins Golf's Most Exclusive Club

Rory McIlroy blew a six-shot lead through 36 holes, watched Cameron Young take the lead on Sunday, and then did what champions do — he found a way. One shot over Scheffler. Green jacket number two. History made.

BogeyBeats StaffApr 13, 20268 min
🏖️
RBC Preview
RBC Heritage Preview: Scheffler Our Pick at Harbour Town, Max Homa the Longshot Play
BogeyBeats StaffApr 14, 20266 min
🌲
Masters Preview
Masters 2026: Scheffler Hunts Third Green Jacket, McIlroy Defends, Åberg Seeks First Major
BogeyBeats StaffApr 7, 20268 min
🤠
Recap
Spaun Eagles 17 to Win Valero Texas Open — MacIntyre's Birdie Putt on 18 Falls Short
BogeyBeats StaffApr 5, 20265 min
😱
Analysis
The 54-Hole Curse — BROKEN: Woodland Led by 1, Won by 5. What Changed?
Mar 29, 20265 min
🏆
Recap
Forever Young: Cam Birdies 17, Pipes 375 Yards on 18, Wins THE PLAYERS as Åberg Implodes
Mar 15, 20266 min
Recap
Fitzpatrick's Redemption Arc Complete: Runner-Up at PLAYERS, Champion at Valspar One Week Later
Mar 22, 20265 min
🔧
Equipment
Scheffler's Driver Tinkering: Why the World No. 1 Finally Ditched His Qi10
Mar 9, 20265 min
BogeyBeats Picks
All Picks →

Our model weights SG: Approach, course history, proximity 150–200 yds, and recent form. Click any card for the full write-up.

⭐ Outright Win
Scottie Scheffler
+600
World No. 1 and the best player on the planet. Harbour Town rewards precision iron play and bogey avoidance — two of Scheffler's greatest strengths. He has a T5 at the RBC in his only previous start and arrives with a chip on his shoulder after finishing runner-up at Augusta.
World #1Elite ironsAugusta runner-upMotivated
💰 Value Play
Russell Henley
+5500
Multiple Harbour Town top-10s, T3 at the Masters just last week, and a methodical bogey-avoiding style tailor-made for Pete Dye's precision layout at Sea Pines. The market is massively underrating him at +5500.
Multiple HT top-10sT3 Masters '26Elite bogey avoidance
🚀 Longshot
Max Homa
+4000
Homa has multiple Augusta top-20s and his methodical approach game fits the Harbour Town profile exactly. The market is sleeping on him at +4000. His surging 2026 ball-striking stats and comfort on Bermudagrass greens make this the most compelling longshot on the board this week.
Augusta top-20sElite approachBermuda putter
All
Analysis
Results
🏆
Masters Recap
The Rory Republic: McIlroy Wins Back-to-Back Masters, Joins Golf's Most Exclusive Club

Rory McIlroy blew a six-shot lead, watched Cameron Young seize the initiative on Sunday, and then birdied 12 and eagled 13 to win his second consecutive green jacket by one over Scheffler.

BogeyBeats StaffApr 13, 20268 min
🏖️
RBC Preview
RBC Heritage Preview: Scheffler Our Pick at Harbour Town, Max Homa the Longshot Play
BogeyBeats StaffApr 14, 20266 min
🌲
Masters Preview
Masters 2026: Scheffler Hunts Third Green Jacket, McIlroy Defends, Åberg Seeks First Major
Apr 7, 20268 min
🤠
Recap
Spaun Eagles 17 to Win Valero Texas Open — MacIntyre's Birdie Putt on 18 Falls Short
Apr 5, 20265 min
💚
Recap
Courage Over Fear: Gary Woodland Wins Houston Open
Mar 29, 20267 min
😱
Analysis
The 54-Hole Curse: Four Straight Leaders Blown — But Woodland Just BROKE It
Mar 29, 20266 min
🏆
Recap
Forever Young: Cam Birdies 17, Pipes 375 Yards on 18, Wins THE PLAYERS as Åberg Implodes
Mar 15, 20266 min
Recap
Fitzpatrick's Redemption Arc: Runner-Up at PLAYERS, Champion at Valspar One Week Later
Mar 22, 20265 min
🏆
Recap
Bold as Arnie: Bhatia Rallies from 5 Down to Beat Berger in Bay Hill Playoff
Mar 8, 20266 min
🔧
Equipment
Scheffler's Driver Tinkering: Why the World No. 1 Finally Ditched His Qi10
Mar 9, 20265 min
💔
Recap
Heartbreak at PGA National: Lowry's Cognizant Collapse Hands Echavarria a Stunning Win
Mar 1, 20266 min
📋
Season Recap
2026 Season So Far: Young, Fitzpatrick, Bhatia — The Florida Swing Delivered
Mar 22, 20265 min
Back to News

🎯 This Week's Picks

1
S. Scheffler WIN
Outright · DraftKings
+600
2
R. Henley VALUE
Outright · DraftKings
+5500
3
Max Homa LONG
Outright · DraftKings
+4000

📅 Up Next

Apr
30
Cadillac Championship
Trump Doral · Miami, FL
May
14
PGA Championship
Aronimink GC · PA
RNK
Player
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
1
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 BB PICK
World #1 · Augusta runner-up · Elite precision game fits Harbour Town perfectly
+600
+600
+620
2
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
Best iron player on Tour · Harbour Town rewards precision approach play · T8 2024
+1400
+1400
+1450
3
Shane Lowry 🇮🇪
Elite ball-striking · Multiple Harbour Town top-10s · Bogey avoider on Pete Dye layouts
+2200
+2200
+2300
4
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
PLAYERS winner · T3 Masters · Riding enormous momentum into Hilton Head
+2500
+2500
+2600
5
Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸
Past RBC top-10 · 2× major winner · Methodical approach suits Harbour Town
+3000
+3000
+3100
6
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
Valspar winner · Precision irons · Harbour Town suits his controlled, accurate style
+3200
+3200
+3300
7
Justin Rose 🇬🇧
Farmers winner 2026 · T3 Masters 2026 · Veteran Harbour Town performer
+3500
+3500
+3600
8
Tommy Fleetwood 🇬🇧
Elite iron play · Multiple Harbour Town top-20s · Strong 2026 form
+3800
+3800
+3900
9
Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴
Previous Harbour Town winner · Rediscovering form · Pete Dye layout suits his game
+4000
+4000
+4100
10
Max Homa 🇺🇸 BB LONGSHOT
Multiple Augusta top-20s · Surging approach stats in 2026 · Bermuda putting specialist
+4000
+4000
+4200
11
Sepp Straka 🇦🇹
Multiple Harbour Town top-20s · Consistent 2026 form · Steady bogey avoider
+4500
+4500
+4600
12
Hideki Matsuyama 🇯🇵
T12 Masters 2026 · Multiple HT top-20s · Elite approach from 150 yds
+4500
+4500
+4600
13
Ludvig Åberg 🇸🇪
Power-precision profile suits HT · Resurgent 2026 form · First Harbour Town start
+4800
+4800
+4900
14
Patrick Cantlay 🇺🇸
Patient, methodical approach suits Harbour Town · Multiple past top-15s here
+5000
+5000
+5100
15
Sam Burns 🇺🇸
T7 RBC Heritage 2024 · Strong Bermuda putter · Consistent 2026 form
+5000
+5000
+5100
16
Russell Henley 🇺🇸 BB VALUE
T3 Masters 2026 · Multiple HT top-10s · Elite bogey avoidance · Pete Dye specialist
+5500
+5500
+5700
17
Corey Conners 🇨🇦
Elite GIR specialist · Bogey avoider · Harbour Town multiple top-20s
+5500
+5500
+5700
18
Jordan Spieth 🇺🇸
T12 Masters 2026 · Past HT winner · Creative short game loves Pete Dye
+5500
+5500
+5700
19
Min Woo Lee 🇦🇺
Attacking iron player · Strong SG: Approach 2026 · 🐢 Turtle R1 pick this week
+5500
+5500
+5700
20
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
API winner 2026 · Fearless attacking game · Harbour Town debut
+6000
+6000
+6200
21
Chris Gotterup 🇺🇸
2× 2026 winner · Power off tee · Harbour Town debut · Hungry to continue run
+6000
+6000
+6200
22
Robert MacIntyre 🇬🇧
Valero runner-up · Scottish gritty iron play · Multiple HT top-25s
+6000
+6000
+6200
23
Patrick Reed 🇺🇸
2018 Masters champ · T12 Augusta 2026 · LIV form surging · HT experience
+6500
+6500
+6700
24
Sungjae Im 🇰🇷
Machine-like consistency · Multiple HT top-20s · Elite greens in regulation
+6500
+6500
+6700
25
Tom Kim 🇰🇷
Athletic ball-striker · Exciting 2026 form · Harbour Town debut
+7000
+7000
+7200
26
Will Zalatoris 🇺🇸
Elite approach game · Multiple HT top-20s · Returning to full fitness
+7000
+7000
+7200
27
Adam Scott 🇦🇺
Elite 2026 T2G stats · Veteran HT presence · Consistently solid at Pete Dye tracks
+7000
+7000
+7200
28
Ryo Hisatsune 🇯🇵
Rising Asian star · Harbour Town debut · 🐢 Turtle R1 opponent · Strong irons
+7500
+7500
+7700
29
Jason Day 🇦🇺
Resurgent 2026 form · Multiple HT top-15s · Elite scrambling
+8000
+8000
+8200
30
J.J. Spaun 🇺🇸
Valero winner · US Open champ · Confidence sky-high entering Hilton Head
+8000
+8000
+8200
31
Sahith Theegala 🇺🇸
Athletic ball-striker · Fearless game · Harbour Town suits his aggressive approach
+8000
+8000
+8200
32
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
5× major champ · T12 Masters 2026 · Big-game mentality · Multiple HT starts
+8500
+8500
+8700
33
Nicolai Højgaard 🇩🇰
Strong 2026 iron stats · Harbour Town debut · European precision ball-striker
+9000
+9000
+9200
34
Gary Woodland 🇺🇸
Houston winner · On a confidence high · First HT start in years
+10000
+10000
+10000

Odds via DraftKings · Updated Apr 14, 2026. Note: Rory McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton are not competing this week. Must be 21+. Please bet responsibly. 1-800-GAMBLER.

🧠
How Our Model Works
We combine strokes-gained data from the past 24 rounds with course-specific stats — weighting heavily on SG: Approach and putting on Bermudagrass — then overlay current Vegas lines to identify positive expected value plays.
🎯
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Active picks for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. Apr 16–19, 2026. $20M Signature Event.

RBC Heritage — Apr 16–19 🏖️

⭐ Outright Win
Scottie Scheffler
+600
The world's best player on a course that rewards everything he does well. Harbour Town is a Par-71 Pete Dye precision track — narrow fairways, small greens, premium on iron play. Scheffler's SG: Total has been the best on Tour for three seasons running. He's motivated after Augusta runner-up and the price is fair.
World #1Elite precisionMotivatedCourse fit elite
💰 Value Play
Russell Henley
+5500
Henley has one of the best Harbour Town records in the field — multiple top-10s at this Pete Dye layout and a meticulous, bogey-avoiding style that suits it perfectly. His 2026 ball-striking numbers are quietly elite and he finished T3 at the Masters just last week. The market is sleeping on him at +5500.
Multiple HT top-10sT3 Masters '26Elite bogey avoidance
🚀 Longshot
Max Homa
+4000
Homa has quietly been one of the best approach players on Tour in 2026 and his Bermuda putting numbers are elite. Harbour Town rewards the methodical, target-golf style that Homa plays better than almost anyone outside the top-5. Multiple Augusta top-20s show his game translates on demanding, accurate courses. +4000 is generous.
Elite approachBermuda specialistAugusta top-20s
✅ Masters Results — Just In

Masters Tournament Results — Apr 12 (FINAL) 🌲

✅ Result — WIN
Rory McIlroy
+950
THE PICK CASHED. McIlroy won the Masters at -12, one shot over Scheffler. He blew a six-shot 36-hole lead, battled back on Sunday with birdies at 12 and 13, and held on through a dramatic closing stretch. Back-to-back green jackets. History made. This is why we back proven champions at value prices.
WIN ✅ +950Back-to-back MastersModel vindicated
❌ Result — Missed
Collin Morikawa
+2700
Finished T9 at Augusta with a solid week — not the top contention we needed but the profile was confirmed. His approach play was elite all four rounds. Still the best long-term Augusta value play we have on the board.
T9Profile confirmed
❌ Result — Missed
Akshay Bhatia
+3300
Didn't contend at Augusta this year. The lefty angle was real but the scorecard didn't cooperate. Part of the process with longshot plays — but the McIlroy win more than made up for it. On to Harbour Town.
No resultMcIlroy covered
📋 Past Results — 2026 Season

Valero Texas Open Results — Apr 5 (FINAL)

✅ Result — Cashed T5
Ludvig Åberg
+1500
Finished T5 at TPC San Antonio — in contention all week before Spaun's eagle on 17 sealed it. The form we identified heading into Augusta is very much there. Model confirmed — great position going into the Masters.
T5 ✅Model confirmedAugusta ready
❌ Result — Missed
Denny McCarthy
+3300
Didn't contend at TPC San Antonio. The Bermuda putting profile we liked didn't translate into enough birdies on a week where Spaun was simply better. Part of the process with value plays — one miss doesn't change the model.
No resultPart of the process
❌ Result — Missed
Jordan Spieth
+1800
Didn't make a run at TPC San Antonio despite the Texas home advantage. The course knowledge we flagged was real but the scorecard didn't cooperate. Spieth is still a name we're watching heading into Augusta.
No resultStill watching

Texas Children's Houston Open Results — Mar 29 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Chris Gotterup
+2600
Finished T3 at Memorial Park — not the outright we wanted but the model was vindicated on the profile. Power game showed up all week and he contended until the final few holes. Gary Woodland was simply unbeatable.
T3Model confirmed
✅ Result — Cashed T4
Min Woo Lee
+2250
Finished T4 and played beautifully all week as defending champ. The course knowledge edge we flagged was real — he contended all four rounds and even held back on 18 to let Woodland walk the final hole alone. Great value pick, cashed well.
T4 ✅Course knowledge edgeContended all week
❌ Result — Missed
Shane Lowry
+3200
Didn't contend at Memorial Park. The ball-striking that we identified as elite just didn't translate into birdies on a week where Woodland was untouchable. Longshot miss — part of the process.
No resultPart of the process

THE PLAYERS Championship Results — Mar 15 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Collin Morikawa
+1500
Morikawa played solid but couldn't get into contention. The profile was right — iron play was excellent — but he just didn't make enough putts to separate himself on a week where Cameron Young was simply better.
No resultPutts cold
❌ Result — Missed
Ludvig Åberg
+2000
Led through 54 holes, held a 4-shot lead entering Sunday. Then TPC Sawgrass did what TPC Sawgrass does. Two water balls on the back nine led to a closing 76. Brutal but the profile was right — we'll be back on Åberg soon.
54-hole leaderClosed 76
❌ Result — Missed
Russell Henley
+4000
Didn't contend at Sawgrass. The consistency model we've been tracking didn't translate this week. Taking the L and moving on — longshot plays require volume to work.
No resultPart of the process

Valspar Championship Results — Mar 22 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Collin Morikawa
+1500
Solid week on the irons but couldn't string enough birdies together at Innisbrook. Fitzpatrick and Im were just better. Model still loves this profile — Morikawa remains on the radar every week.
No resultIron play solid
❌ Result — Missed
Ludvig Åberg
+2800
Still recovering confidence after the PLAYERS collapse. Didn't contend at Innisbrook — the Bermudagrass putting that we expected to click just didn't come around.
No resultPutter cold
❌ Result — Missed
Jason Day
+6500
Copperhead looked set up for his profile but the short game let him down on the weekend. Longshot misses are part of the process — you need volume for these to hit.
No resultShort game cold

Arnold Palmer Invitational Results — Mar 8 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Rory McIlroy
+940
Withdrew after round 2 with back spasms. Was -4 through 36 holes and very much in the mix before the precautionary exit. With THE PLAYERS and Masters ahead it was the right call — just bad luck for our ticket.
WD — BackBad luck
❌ Result — Missed
Tommy Fleetwood
+1750
The iron play we flagged was genuinely there all week — the problem was the Bermuda putter. When you can't hole anything inside 15 feet on this surface, you can't win. Profile confirmed, execution didn't follow.
No resultPutter cold
✅ Result — Cashed T3
Ludvig Åberg
+4100
Tied for third at -12 with six birdies in the final round. Our model nailed the course fit — ascending form showed up in a huge way at Bay Hill. This is exactly why we back players trending upward at long prices.
T3 ✅Model confirmed6 final-round birdies

Cognizant Classic Results — Mar 1 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Nicolai Højgaard
+2500
Missed the cut at PGA National. Our model flagged elite ball-striking correctly but the putter went completely cold at the worst moment. The profile was right — execution fell apart.
MCPutter cold
✅ Result — Cashed T11
Adam Scott
+2200
Finished T11 at PGA National — not the outright cash we wanted but strong model confirmation. Scott's SG: T2G numbers were #1 in the field all week and he continues to produce at a high level in 2026.
T11 ✅Model confirmed#1 SG: T2G
❌ Result — Missed
Sam Ryder
+10000
Missed the cut. The triple-digit profile was there on paper but PGA National didn't cooperate. Longshot plays require volume — one miss doesn't change the strategy.
MCPart of the process

Genesis Invitational Results — Feb 19 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Rory McIlroy
+850
Finished T6 at Riviera — solid but not the contention we needed. His approach play was vintage McIlroy all week, just couldn't string enough birdies on Sunday to make a real run.
T6Solid week
✅ Result — Cashed T4
Adam Scott
+2500
Solo fourth at Riviera, continuing one of the best stretches of his career in 2026. Our model had him as a clear value play and he delivered. SG: T2G was elite all four rounds.
T4 ✅Elite T2GBest form in years
❌ Result — Missed
Sahith Theegala
+8000
Riviera was supposed to suit his athletic ball-striking profile but he couldn't find the scoring zones. The miss at a course where he has shown flashes before is frustrating but not a model concern.
No resultScoring zones cold

AT&T Pebble Beach Results — Feb 12 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Rory McIlroy
+1200
Couldn't convert at Pebble — Morikawa was simply unbeatable on Sunday. McIlroy's approach play was excellent but the putter didn't show up when it mattered most on the final nine.
No resultMorikawa too good
✅ Result — Cashed WIN
Collin Morikawa
+1400
Won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at -22, birdying the 72nd hole to win by one. Our model had him as a value play all week — elite iron play on a course that demands precision approach shots. A perfect BogeyBeats profile hit.
WIN ✅-22 totalBirdie 72nd holeModel perfect
❌ Result — Missed
Tom Kim
+5500
Didn't contend at Pebble. The power-speed profile we liked didn't translate on the slower Poa annua greens that weekend. Part of the longshot game.
No resultGreens didn't suit
📊 Scoring Average & FedExCup Leaders

Adjusted scoring average (strokes vs. field) and season FedExCup points standings. Source: PGA Tour official stats via ShotLink, through Apr 13, 2026.

RNK
Player
Scoring Avg
FedExCup Pts
SG: OTT Rank
GIR %
Bogey Avoid
1
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
PLAYERS winner · T3 Masters · 4 top-10s
69.93
1,636
4th
70.83%
11.71%
2
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
American Express winner · T2 Masters · World #1
69.49
1,631
11th
71.03%
11.57%
3
Jacob Bridgeman 🇺🇸
Genesis Invitational winner · Most rounds in 60s on Tour
69.77
1,472
4
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
Pebble Beach winner · T7 Masters · #1 SG: App on Tour
69.69
1,419
18th
71.21%
5
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
Valspar winner · T2 PLAYERS · 2nd SG: T2G on Tour
70.11
1,294
7th SG: App
19 cuts made
6
Chris Gotterup 🇺🇸
Sony Open + WM Phoenix wins · Top-5 SG: OTT
70.06
1,263
Top 5
7
Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪
2× Masters champion · 4 PGA Tour starts · Taking RBC off
69.60
1,226
Top-10
8
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
Arnold Palmer winner · 6th SG: Total · 9th SG: Putt
1,224
93rd OTT
68.31%
24th
🏆 Strokes Gained: Total — Season Leaders

Official SG: Total average per round. The most predictive single metric of overall player quality. Rankings and values sourced from pgatour.com betting profiles, through Masters week.

RNK
Player
SG: Total
SG: App
SG: OTT
SG: ARG
SG: Putt
~1
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
World #1 · 3rd SG: Total on Tour · Approach off vs prior years
~2.4
+0.080 (81st)
+0.623 (11th)
+0.618 (3rd)
+0.547 (16th)
~3
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
#1 SG: Approach on Tour · Putter below average
+1.530 (11th)
+1.066 (1st)
+0.542 (18th)
-0.116 (102nd)
~4
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
4th SG: OTT · 23rd SG: App · Solid all-around
~2.0+
+0.499 (23rd)
+0.699 (4th)
+0.313 (40th)
6
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
6th SG: Total · 8th SG: App · 9th SG: Putt
+1.646 (6th)
+0.792 (8th)
-0.044 (93rd)
+0.730 (9th)
~8
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
Valspar winner · 2nd SG: T2G · 7th SG: Approach · 19 cuts made
~1.8
~7th App
~9
Robert MacIntyre 🇬🇧
9th OTT · 4th SG: Putt · Approach struggles in 2026
~1.5
-0.247 (123rd)
+0.655 (9th)
+0.869 (4th)
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
3rd SG: App on Tour · Putting badly negative
+0.913 (3rd)
-0.529 (140th)
Tommy Fleetwood 🇬🇧
28th SG: App · 2nd SG: ARG on Tour · Putter cold
~1.3
+0.459 (28th)
+0.435 (32nd)
+0.712 (2nd)
-0.263 (120th)
💨 Driving Distance & Accuracy Leaders

Official PGA Tour driving stats. Distance = measured average (yds). Accuracy = fairways hit %. Source: PGA Tour official stats via ShotLink, through Apr 13, 2026.

RNK
Player
Dist (yds)
SG: OTT Rank
Acc %
GIR %
Scoring Avg
1
Aldrich Potgieter 🇿🇦
Longest driver on Tour 2026 · Ball speed leader (189.96 mph)
325.0
2
Gary Woodland 🇺🇸
Houston Open winner · 2nd in driving distance 2026
324.6
91.07% 300+
3
Chris Gotterup 🇺🇸
2× winner 2026 · Top-5 SG: OTT · Distance + winning combo
321.1
Top 5
70.06
4
Marco Penge 🇬🇧
4th in driving distance on Tour 2026
320.4
5
Jake Knapp 🇺🇸
5th driving distance · Eagles leader (38.6 holes/eagle)
320.2
69.12
6
Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪
8th distance · Masters winner · Par-5 birdie leader (64.71%)
319.7
Top-10
69.60
7
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
4th SG: OTT · 33rd driving distance · PLAYERS winner
310.2
4th
70.83%
69.93
8
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
11th SG: OTT · 39th distance · Birdie avg leader (5.04)
309.5
11th
71.03%
69.49
Si Woo Kim 🇰🇷
Driving accuracy leader — 71.25% fairways hit
71.25% FIR
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
3rd driving accuracy · 85th driving distance · Elite GIR
302.6
70.27% FIR
Russell Henley 🇺🇸
5th driving accuracy (70.15%) · BB value pick this week
70.15% FIR
🎯 SG: Approach & Greens in Regulation Leaders

Official SG: Approach and GIR data from pgatour.com, through Masters week. SG: Approach is the single strongest predictor of success at precision courses like Harbour Town.

RNK
Player
SG: App
Tour Rank
GIR %
GIR Rank
SG: OTT
1
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
LEADS TOUR in SG: Approach · 5th GIR · Pebble Beach winner
+1.066
1st
71.21%
5th
+0.542
2
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
2nd SG: T2G · 7th SG: App · 70.27% FIR · Valspar winner
~7th
~7th
3
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
3rd SG: Approach on Tour · Putting cost him this season
+0.913
3rd
4
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
8th SG: Approach · 37th GIR · API winner
+0.792
8th
68.31%
37th
-0.044
5
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
23rd SG: App · 7th GIR · 4th SG: OTT · PLAYERS champion
+0.499
23rd
70.83%
7th
+0.699
6
Tommy Fleetwood 🇬🇧
28th SG: App · 44th GIR · 32nd SG: OTT · 2nd SG: ARG
+0.459
28th
67.78%
44th
+0.435
7
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
81st SG: App (off vs usual #1) · 6th GIR · 3rd SG: ARG
+0.080
81st
71.03%
6th
+0.618
Robert MacIntyre 🇬🇧
9th SG: OTT · 4th SG: Putt · Approach major weakness
-0.247
123rd
66.47%
69th
+0.655
🥛 SG: Putting & Around the Green Leaders

Official SG: Putting and SG: Around-the-Green from pgatour.com via ShotLink, through Masters week. Bermudagrass putting is a key differentiator at Harbour Town.

RNK
Player
SG: Putt
Putt Rank
SG: ARG
ARG Rank
Putts/Rnd
1
Robert MacIntyre 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
4th SG: Putt on Tour · Elite putter even when approach struggles
+0.869
4th
27.54
2
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
9th SG: Putt · 3rd par-breaker pct · API winner
+0.730
9th
27.89
3
Tommy Fleetwood 🇬🇧
2nd SG: ARG on Tour · Putter cold (120th) · Short game elite
-0.263
120th
+0.712
2nd
28.15
4
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
16th SG: Putt · 3rd SG: ARG · Gained putting 12 straight starts
+0.547
16th
+0.618
3rd
27.67
5
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
40th SG: Putt · 10th par-breaker % · Solid all-around
+0.313
40th
28.32
6
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
102nd SG: Putt · Biggest hole in his game in 2026
-0.116
102nd
28.68
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
Biggest statistical weakness — 140th SG: Putt in 2026
-0.529
140th

All stats sourced from pgatour.com official ShotLink data. SG = Strokes Gained · App = Approach · OTT = Off the Tee · ARG = Around the Green · FIR = Fairways in Regulation · GIR = Greens in Regulation. Stats through Masters Tournament, Apr 13, 2026. Rankings marked "~" are approximated from FedExCup standings and betting profile context; exact seasonal SG: Total ranking list is dynamically rendered on pgatour.com.

Jan
15
Sony Open in Hawaii
📍 Waialae CC · Honolulu, HI✅ Winner: Chris Gotterup
$8.9M
Done
Jan
22
The American Express
📍 PGA West · La Quinta, CA✅ Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-27, 4-shot win)
$8.7M
Done
Jan
29
Farmers Insurance Open
📍 Torrey Pines · La Jolla, CA✅ Winner: Justin Rose (-23, wire-to-wire)
$9.6M
Done
Feb
5
WM Phoenix Open
📍 TPC Scottsdale · Scottsdale, AZ✅ Winner: Chris Gotterup (playoff vs. Matsuyama)
$20M
Done
Feb
12
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ⭐ Sig.
📍 Pebble Beach GL · Pebble Beach, CA✅ Winner: Collin Morikawa (-22, birdie on 72nd)
$20M
Done
Feb
19
The Genesis Invitational ⭐ Sig.
📍 Riviera CC · Pacific Palisades, CA✅ Winner: Jacob Bridgeman (-18, final-round 66)
$20M
Done
Feb
26
Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches
📍 PGA National (Champion) · Palm Beach Gardens, FL✅ Winner: Nico Echavarria (-17, Lowry collapse on 16-17)
$9.6M
Done
Mar
15
THE PLAYERS Championship
📍 TPC Sawgrass · Ponte Vedra Beach, FL✅ Winner: Cameron Young (-13, beat Fitzpatrick by 1)
$25M
Done
Mar
22
Valspar Championship
📍 Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) · Palm Harbor, FL✅ Winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (-11, birdie on 18 to beat Lipsky)
$9.1M
Done
Mar
29
Texas Children's Houston Open
📍 Memorial Park Golf Course · Houston, TX✅ Winner: Gary Woodland (-21, 5-shot win over Højgaard · Tournament record)
$9.9M
Done
Apr
5
Valero Texas Open
📍 TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) · San Antonio, TX✅ Winner: J.J. Spaun (-17, eagle on 17 to beat MacIntyre by 1)
$9.8M
Done
Apr
9
Masters Tournament ⛳
📍 Augusta National GC · Augusta, GA✅ Winner: Rory McIlroy (-12, 1-shot over Scheffler · 2nd consecutive green jacket)
$22.5M
Done
Apr
16
RBC Heritage ⭐ Sig.
📍 Harbour Town Golf Links · Hilton Head Island, SCScheffler our pick · Max Homa longshot · Turtle: Min Woo Lee R1
$20M
This Week
Apr
30
Cadillac Championship ⭐ Sig.
📍 Trump National Doral (Blue Monster) · Miami, FLNew 2026 Signature Event · Blue Monster returns to Tour
$20M
Upcoming
May
7
Truist Championship ⭐ Sig.
📍 Quail Hollow Club · Charlotte, NCSignature Event · PGA Championship venue 2025
$20M
Upcoming
May
14
PGA Championship
📍 Aronimink Golf Club · Newton Square, PA
$18M
Upcoming
Jun
4
Memorial Tournament ⭐ Sig.
📍 Muirfield Village GC · Dublin, OHJack Nicklaus host · Signature Event
$20M
Upcoming
Jun
18
U.S. Open
📍 Oakmont Country Club · Oakmont, PA
$21.5M
Upcoming
Our Story · Est. 2026

Born on the Fairway,
Built for the Fan

BogeyBeats started with one college student, one deep obsession, and a conviction that golf deserved better coverage — honest, data-driven, and written by someone who actually plays.

Hi, I'm Michael Aroyan

I came to golf late. Three, maybe four years ago — give or take a few shanked drives and rounds I'd rather forget. And yet somehow, in that time, this game has become the most important thing in my life outside of school. I'm a junior at UC Santa Barbara, I work at The Valley Club of Montecito, and I'm completely, irreversibly hooked on golf.

It started the way it always does: a casual round with friends, a score I'd rather not share, and that inexplicable pull to go back out again the very next morning. Something about this game got inside me and refused to leave. The precision. The silence. The way it humbles you differently every single time, no matter how many rounds you play. I didn't choose to fall in love with golf — it just happened, and I have no interest in fighting it.

"Golf is the only sport where you can play the same course a hundred times and feel like it's humbling you in a completely new way each time. There's no ceiling to how much you can learn — and that's exactly what keeps pulling me back out every single week." — Michael Aroyan

The Valley Club of Montecito

Working at The Valley Club of Montecito has been one of the best things that has ever happened to me. Nestled into the sun-drenched foothills above Santa Barbara with views of the Pacific that make you forget whatever you shot on the back nine, Montecito is the kind of place that deepens your respect for what golf actually is — not just a sport, but a culture, a craft, and a community.

Every shift there teaches me something I couldn't learn from a textbook or a stats spreadsheet. The rhythm of a golf course through the day. The way morning dew changes how the ball rolls out. The culture of the clubhouse, the conversations between members, the quiet professionalism that goes into making a great golf experience feel effortless. I want to spend my career in this industry, and working at Montecito has only made that desire stronger.

Going to the Events

I don't just watch golf from a couch — I go. And those experiences have shaped how I think about the game more than anything else. Standing inside the ropes at Riviera during the Genesis Invitational, one of the most architecturally perfect golf courses in the world, gives you a reverence for the game's history that no broadcast can replicate. Walking those fairways, you can feel why the pros love it here.

The Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale is a completely different beast — the loudest, most unhinged atmosphere in professional sports, where the 16th hole turns into something that belongs more at a concert than a golf tournament. It's electric in a way that makes you understand why people fall in love with this sport from a completely different angle.

Pebble Beach during the Pro-Am is something else entirely. Standing on the clifftops watching fog roll in off Stillwater Cove while the Pacific glitters below — it's the most beautiful place I've ever watched golf, and I've thought about it nearly every day since. And then there's the U.S. Open — the most demanding, unforgiving major in the sport. Watching the world's best players fight impossible rough and lightning-fast greens gave me a profound respect for what these professionals actually endure. That respect bleeds into every pick and every word on BogeyBeats.

Why I Built BogeyBeats

I built BogeyBeats because I was frustrated. Most golf coverage is either too technical for casual fans or too shallow for people who actually want to understand what's happening on the course. I wanted something in the middle — smart, data-backed analysis written by someone who plays the game, loves it, and has stood on those fairways.

The analytics side of golf is what really captured me. Strokes gained is one of the most powerful tools in sports analytics, and once I started seeing the game through that lens — understanding not just who won, but why, and what the numbers were actually telling us about who should win — I couldn't stop. I started building models. I started making picks. And I started realizing I was actually decent at it.

BogeyBeats is the natural output of all of it. I'm a junior at UCSB with a golf bag in my car, a shift at one of California's great private clubs, and a tab permanently open to the latest SG data. I want to spend my life inside the ropes — working in professional golf, following the tour, building something in this sport. This site is chapter one of that story.

Thanks for being here. Now let's go find some winners.

🏌️

"I want to spend my life in and around this game. BogeyBeats is the first chapter of that."

— Michael Aroyan · Founder, BogeyBeats

📋 Quick Facts

School
UC Santa Barbara · Class of 2027
Work
The Valley Club of Montecito, Santa Barbara, CA
Playing
3–4 years · pure love of the game
Dream
A career in professional golf
Style
Course-nerd meets stats-obsessive

🏆 Events Attended

⛳ Genesis Invitational · Riviera 🏆 U.S. Open 🎉 Waste Management Phoenix Open 🌊 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
🐢
Exclusive · BogeyBeats Secret Weapon
Trundling
Turtle

One pick. One week. Zero compromises.

Deep in the BogeyBeats analytics lab lives our finest statistician: Matthew Aroyan — older brother, numbers savant, and the man responsible for the single most feared column in golf betting. Every week, Matthew surfaces from the data and delivers exactly one pick. He calls it his Master Lock. We call it the most dangerous play on the board. This section exists nowhere else on the internet — and that's the point. You found it. Use it wisely.

🔒 MASTER LOCK OF THE WEEK
RBC Heritage · Week of Apr 16, 2026 · Round 1 Matchup
First Round Matchup Bet
🇦🇺
Min Woo Lee
Attacking iron player · Strong SG: Approach · T4 Houston Open · Fearless under pressure
-120
VS
🇯🇵
Ryo Hisatsune
Harbour Town debut · Limited data on Pete Dye layouts · Still developing short game
+100
🐢 THE TURTLE TAKES: MIN WOO LEE
T4
Lee at Houston Open
1st
Hisatsune Harbour Town
+0.92
Lee SG: Approach
-120
Lee odds (DK)

Matthew's Analysis

Min Woo Lee is one of the most attacking, fearless players in the field this week and his game is built for Pete Dye precision layouts. His SG: Approach has been consistently positive all season, he finished T4 at the Houston Open just two weeks ago, and his short game scrambling on Bermuda grass is among the best in the international player group.

Ryo Hisatsune is a genuinely talented player but this is his first appearance at Harbour Town. Pete Dye courses have a specific language — you have to know the angles, the miss locations, the ways the layout tricks first-timers into bogeys. That debut tax is real, quantifiable, and not yet priced into the +100 market.

Lee at -120 is not a huge number, but it doesn't need to be. This is an edge. Round 1 matchups at courses where one player has significant experience and the other is debutant-ing are where the turtle lives. Slow and sure. Min Woo in Round 1.

Odds via DraftKings · Must be 21+. Please bet responsibly. 1-800-GAMBLER.
LAST WEEK — CASHED
Masters Tournament · Round 1 · Apr 9, 2026
Rory McIlroy over Xander Schauffele
Matthew's call: McIlroy -115 in the R1 matchup. McIlroy shot a first-round 67 (-5), sharing the lead with Sam Burns. Schauffele struggled to a 71 (+1). The matchup wasn't close. And then McIlroy went on to win the whole thing at +950. The turtle's eye for the right week keeps delivering.
WIN ✅
Result

🐢 Matthew's Master Lock Record — 2026

🔥 Undefeated — Week 2
4
Wins
0
Losses
100%
Hit Rate

The turtle moves slow, deliberate, and sure — and so far, it is undefeated.
New pick drops every Tuesday.

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