Week of Apr 9 – 12, 2026

The
Masters
Tournament

The year's first major is finally here. Augusta National hosts the 90th Masters with Scheffler hunting a third green jacket, McIlroy defending his career Grand Slam title, and a star-studded field chasing history.

This Week's Favorites
Masters Tournament 2026
📍 Augusta National Golf Club · Apr 9–12 · $18M Purse
Scottie Scheffler FAV
🇺🇸 United States
+460
Rory McIlroy BB PICK
🇮🇪 Ireland
+950
Ludvig Åberg
🇸🇪 Sweden
+1100
Jon Rahm
🇪🇸 Spain
+1300
Bryson DeChambeau
🇺🇸 United States
+1600
This Week
Augusta National Golf Club
|
Par 72 · 7,545 yds
|
Augusta, Georgia
|
First Major · $18M Purse
|
🌸 Azaleas in bloom · Warm & fair
⚡ Breaking
J.J. Spaun wins Valero Texas Open — eagle on 17 seals dramatic one-shot win over MacIntyre  •  Masters Tournament begins Thursday — Scheffler +460, McIlroy defending at +950  •  Bryson DeChambeau & Jon Rahm +1000 — three LIV stars in Masters top 5 of odds board  •  Ludvig Åberg +1100 — seeks first major after PLAYERS 54-hole collapse  •  Gary Woodland earns Masters debut after Houston win — emotional week ahead at Augusta  •  Xander Schauffele seeks career Grand Slam with Masters win at +1600  •  Tiger Woods NOT playing Masters 2026 · Phil Mickelson also absent  •  J.J. Spaun wins Valero Texas Open — eagle on 17 seals dramatic one-shot win over MacIntyre  •  Masters Tournament begins Thursday — Scheffler +460, McIlroy defending at +950  •  Bryson DeChambeau & Jon Rahm +1000 — three LIV stars in Masters top 5 of odds board  •  Ludvig Åberg +1100 — seeks first major after PLAYERS 54-hole collapse  •  Gary Woodland earns Masters debut after Houston win — emotional week ahead at Augusta  •  Xander Schauffele seeks career Grand Slam with Masters win at +1600  •  Tiger Woods NOT playing Masters 2026 · Phil Mickelson also absent  • 
Latest News
All Stories →
All
Analysis
Picks
Results
🌲
Masters Preview
Masters 2026: Scheffler Hunts Third Green Jacket, McIlroy Defends, Åberg Seeks First Major — BogeyBeats Full Preview

The year's first major is finally here. Our complete Augusta National breakdown — course fit, our picks, the LIV factor, and why Rory McIlroy at +950 might be the best bet on the board.

BogeyBeats StaffApr 7, 20268 min
🤠
Recap
Spaun Eagles 17 to Win Valero Texas Open — MacIntyre's Birdie Putt on 18 Falls Short
BogeyBeats StaffApr 5, 20265 min
😱
Analysis
The 54-Hole Curse — BROKEN: Woodland Led by 1, Won by 5. What Changed?
Mar 29, 20265 min
🤠
Preview
Valero Texas Open Preview: Fleetwood & Åberg +1500, Spieth on Home Soil, Masters Spot at Stake
Mar 31, 20265 min
🏆
Recap
Forever Young: Cam Birdies 17, Pipes 375 Yards on 18, Wins THE PLAYERS as Åberg Implodes
Mar 15, 20266 min
⛳
Recap
Fitzpatrick's Redemption Arc Complete: Runner-Up at PLAYERS, Champion at Valspar One Week Later
Mar 22, 20265 min
🤠
Preview
Houston Open Preview: Scheffler Goes Home to Texas — Can He Finally Win at Memorial Park?
Mar 24, 20266 min
🏆
Recap
Bold as Arnie: Bhatia Rallies from 5 Down to Beat Berger in First Bay Hill Playoff Since 1999
Mar 8, 20266 min
🔧
Equipment
Scheffler's Driver Tinkering: Why the World No. 1 Finally Ditched His Qi10
Mar 9, 20265 min
🌲
Masters Preview
Masters 2026: Scheffler -220, McIlroy Defends, Young Now a Legitimate Contender
Mar 22, 20267 min
BogeyBeats Picks
All Picks →

Our model weights SG: Approach, course history, proximity 150–200 yds, and recent form. Click any card for the full write-up.

⭐ Outright Win
Rory McIlroy
+950
Defending champion at Augusta National. Won the career Grand Slam here in 2025. His Augusta game is now unlocked — the mental barriers are gone. Best price on the board for a proven green jacket winner who is the field's biggest threat to Scheffler.
Defending ChampCareer Grand Slam2025 winnerBest value
💰 Value Play
Collin Morikawa
+2700
Two majors already — PGA Championship and Open. The Masters has been the elusive one but his precision iron play is made for Augusta. Best course fit in the field outside Scheffler. At +2700 this is a screaming value for a player who finishes in the top 20 here every single year.
2× Major winnerElite Augusta ironsConsistent T20
🚀 Longshot
Akshay Bhatia
+3300
Left-handers have a phenomenal Augusta record — Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Mike Weir. Bhatia won the Arnold Palmer Invitational this season and has finished T16 or better in five straight starts. His fearless, attacking style is made for Augusta National's par-5s.
API WinnerLefty Augusta edgeT16 or better x5
All
Analysis
Picks
Results
🌲
Masters Preview
Masters 2026: Scheffler Hunts Third Green Jacket, McIlroy Defends, Åberg Seeks First Major

Our full Augusta National breakdown — course fit, our picks, the LIV factor, and why McIlroy at +950 might be the best bet on the board.

BogeyBeats StaffApr 7, 20268 min
🤠
Recap
Spaun Eagles 17 to Win Valero Texas Open — MacIntyre's Birdie Putt on 18 Falls Short
Apr 5, 20265 min
💚
Recap
Courage Over Fear: Gary Woodland Wins Houston Open
Mar 29, 20267 min
😱
Analysis
The 54-Hole Curse: Four Straight Leaders Blown — But Woodland Just BROKE It
Mar 29, 20266 min
🤠
Preview
Valero Texas Open Preview: Fleetwood & Åberg +1500, Spieth on Home Soil, Masters Spot at Stake
Mar 31, 20265 min
🏆
Recap
Forever Young: Cam Birdies 17, Pipes 375 Yards on 18, Wins THE PLAYERS as Åberg Implodes
Mar 15, 20266 min
⛳
Recap
Fitzpatrick's Redemption Arc: Runner-Up at PLAYERS, Champion at Valspar One Week Later
Mar 22, 20265 min
🤠
Preview
Houston Open Preview: Scheffler Goes Home to Texas — Can He Finally Win at Memorial Park?
Mar 24, 20266 min
🏆
Recap
Bold as Arnie: Bhatia Rallies from 5 Down to Beat Berger in Bay Hill Playoff
Mar 8, 20266 min
🔧
Equipment
Scheffler's Driver Tinkering: Why the World No. 1 Finally Ditched His Qi10
Mar 9, 20265 min
🌲
Masters Preview
Masters 2026: Scheffler -220, McIlroy Defends, Young Now a Legitimate Contender
Mar 22, 20267 min
💔
Recap
Heartbreak at PGA National: Lowry's Cognizant Collapse Hands Echavarria a Stunning Win
Mar 1, 20266 min
📋
Season Recap
2026 Season So Far: Young, Fitzpatrick, Bhatia — The Florida Swing Delivered
Mar 22, 20265 min
Back to News

··

🎯 This Week's Picks

1
C. Gotterup WIN
Outright · DraftKings
+2600
2
Min Woo Lee VALUE
Outright · DraftKings
+2250
3
Shane Lowry LONG
Outright · DraftKings
+4200

📅 Up Next

Apr
2
Valero Texas Open
TPC San Antonio · TX
Apr
9
Masters Tournament
Augusta National · GA
>
RNK
Player
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
1
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 FAV
World #1 · 2× Masters champ (2022, 2024) · Won every format in 2026
+460
+460
+475
2
Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪 BB PICK
Defending champion · Career Grand Slam holder · Mental barriers gone
+950
+950
+1000
3
Ludvig Åberg 🇸🇪
T2 Augusta 2024 · First major in reach · Surging form
+1100
+1100
+1150
4
Jon Rahm 🇪🇸
2023 Masters champion · LIV 2026 form surging · T3 Augusta 2025
+1300
+1300
+1350
5
Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸
T5 Augusta 2025 · 2× LIV wins in 2026 · Playoff clutch gene
+1600
+1600
+1650
5
Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸
Seeks career Grand Slam · 2× major champ · T3 TPC Sawgrass 2026
+1600
+1600
+1650
7
Tommy Fleetwood 🇬🇧
Valero co-fav · Elite iron play · Has never won a major
+2000
+2000
+2100
8
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
PLAYERS champion · Augusta debut · World #4
+2500
+2500
+2600
9
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 VALUE
Seeks Masters for career Grand Slam · T20 Augusta every year
+2700
+2700
+2800
9
Justin Rose 🇬🇧
Farmers winner 2026 · Runner-up Masters 2025 in playoff vs McIlroy
+2700
+2700
+2800
9
Patrick Reed 🇺🇸
2018 Masters champ · LIV 2026 on fire · T3 Augusta 2025
+2700
+2700
+2800
12
Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴
Rediscovering form · Strong Augusta course history · Multiple top-10s
+3000
+3000
+3100
12
Hideki Matsuyama 🇯🇵
2021 Masters champion · Elite scrambling suits Augusta
+3000
+3000
+3100
14
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸 BB PICK
API winner · Lefty Augusta history · T16 or better in 5 straight
+3300
+3300
+3400
14
Justin Thomas 🇺🇸
2× major winner · Augusta National member in spirit · Big game suits
+3300
+3300
+3400
14
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
Valspar winner · US Open champ · Precision approach game
+3300
+3300
+3400
17
Russell Henley 🇺🇸
Consistent 2026 · T4 Valero 2024 · Strong ball-striking profile
+4000
+4000
+4100
17
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
5× major champ · Memorial Park designer · Clutch Sunday golfer
+4000
+4000
+4100
17
Jordan Spieth 🇺🇸
2015 Masters champ · Augusta specialist · Career Grand Slam in reach
+4000
+4000
+4100
17
Robert MacIntyre 🇬🇧
Valero runner-up · Surging 2026 form · Augusta debutant
+4000
+4000
+4100
21
Tyrrell Hatton 🇬🇧
LIV 2026 winner · Augusta experience · Ryder Cup stalwart
+4500
+4500
+4600
22
Min Woo Lee 🇦🇺
Houston T4 · T2 Augusta 2023 · Excellent course history
+4000
+4000
+4500
22
Joaquin Niemann 🇨🇱
LIV star · Powerful hitter · Augusta par-5 specialist
+5000
+5000
+5100
22
Sepp Straka 🇦🇹
Consistent 2026 form · Solid Augusta profile · T14 last year
+5000
+5000
+5100
22
Patrick Cantlay 🇺🇸
Elite patience · Augusta suits his meticulous approach
+5000
+5000
+5100
22
Shane Lowry 🇮🇪
Open champion · Ball-striking elite · Multiple top-25 Augusta
+5000
+5000
+5100
27
Chris Gotterup 🇺🇸
2× 2026 winner · Augusta National debut · Power game suits par-5s
+5500
+5500
+5600
27
Corey Conners 🇨🇦
Excellent Augusta history · Elite bogey avoidance · GIR specialist
+5500
+5500
+5600
29
Jason Day 🇦🇺
Veteran Augusta presence · Resurgent 2026 form · Elite scrambler
+6000
+6000
+6100
29
Ben Griffin 🇺🇸
Augusta debut · Strong 2026 iron play · Dark horse
+6000
+6000
+6100
29
Daniel Berger 🇺🇸
T2 API 2026 · Resurgent comeback season · Multiple Augusta top-25s
+6000
+6000
+6100
32
Jacob Bridgeman 🇺🇸
Genesis Invitational winner · First Augusta appearance
+6500
+6500
+6600
32
Adam Scott 🇦🇺
2013 Masters champ · Elite 2026 T2G stats · Veteran Augusta specialist
+6500
+6500
+6600
34
Max Homa 🇺🇸
Multiple Augusta top-20s · Surging ball-striker in 2026
+7000
+7000
+7100
34
Will Zalatoris 🇺🇸
T2 Augusta 2022 · Returning from injury · Elite Augusta record
+7000
+7000
+7100
34
Sahith Theegala 🇺🇸
Athletic ball-striker · First Masters · Fearless game
+7000
+7000
+7100
34
Sungjae Im 🇰🇷
Machine-like consistency · Multiple Augusta top-15s
+7000
+7000
+7100
34
Cameron Smith 🇦🇺
LIV star · T3 Augusta 2022 · Elite short game specialist
+7000
+7000
+7100
39
Sam Burns 🇺🇸
Consistent 2026 · Louisiana native · Strong Augusta putter
+8000
+8000
+8200
39
Gary Woodland 🇺🇸
Houston winner · Masters debut · PTSD comeback story
+8000
+8000
+8200
39
Tony Finau 🇺🇸
Multiple Augusta top-10s · One of the longest hitters in field
+10000
+10000
+10000
39
J.J. Spaun 🇺🇸
Valero winner · US Open champ · Head hot entering Augusta
+8800
+8800
+9000
43
Ryo Hisatsune 🇯🇵
Rising Asian star · Augusta first-timer · Strong irons
+10000
+10000
+10000
43
Marco Penge 🇬🇧
UK star · First Masters appearance · Long hitter
+8000
+8000
+8200
43
Davis Thompson 🇺🇸
Improving 2026 · Augusta debut · Long iron specialist
+10000
+10000
+10000

Odds via FanDuel · Updated Apr 1, 2026. Must be 21+. Please bet responsibly. 1-800-GAMBLER.

🧠
How Our Model Works
We combine strokes-gained data from the past 24 rounds with course-specific stats — weighting heavily on SG: Approach and putting on Bermudagrass — then overlay current Vegas lines to identify positive expected value plays.
🎯
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Active picks for The Masters Tournament at Augusta National. Apr 9–12, 2026. Year's first major.

Masters Tournament — Apr 9–12 🌲

⭐ Outright Win
Rory McIlroy
+950
Defending champion at Augusta National. Won the career Grand Slam here in 2025 in one of the most dramatic Masters finishes ever — defeating Justin Rose in a playoff. The mental barriers that haunted McIlroy at Augusta are fully gone. He knows how to win here now. Best value bet on the board.
Defending ChampCareer Grand SlamPlayoff winner '25Mental edge unlocked
💰 Value Play
Collin Morikawa
+2700
Won the PGA Championship and The Open — the Masters is the last major he needs for the career Grand Slam. His precision iron play is Augusta-made. The market underrates him every Masters and he delivers a top 20 every single year. At +2700 this is the best value pick on the board.
PGA ChampOpen ChampT20 every year AugustaSeeking Grand Slam
🚀 Longshot
Akshay Bhatia
+3300
Left-handers have an extraordinary Augusta record — Mickelson three times, Bubba twice, Weir once. Bhatia won the API this season and has finished T16 or better in five straight starts. Attacking Augusta's par-5s with a left-handed draw is a genuine structural advantage.
API Winner '26Lefty Augusta edgeT16 or better x5
📋 Past Results — 2026 Season

Valero Texas Open Results — Apr 5 (FINAL)

✅ Result — Cashed T5
Ludvig Åberg
+1500
Finished T5 at TPC San Antonio — in contention all week before Spaun's eagle on 17 sealed it. The form we identified heading into Augusta is very much there. Model confirmed — great position going into the Masters.
T5 ✅Model confirmedAugusta ready
❌ Result — Missed
Denny McCarthy
+3300
Didn't contend at TPC San Antonio. The Bermuda putting profile we liked didn't translate into enough birdies on a week where Spaun was simply better. Part of the process with value plays — one miss doesn't change the model.
No resultPart of the process
❌ Result — Missed
Jordan Spieth
+1800
Didn't make a run at TPC San Antonio despite the Texas home advantage. The course knowledge we flagged was real but the scorecard didn't cooperate. Spieth is still a name we're watching heading into Augusta.
No resultStill watching

Texas Children's Houston Open Results — Mar 29 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Chris Gotterup
+2600
Finished T3 at Memorial Park — not the outright we wanted but the model was vindicated on the profile. Power game showed up all week and he contended until the final few holes. Gary Woodland was simply unbeatable.
T3Model confirmed
✅ Result — Cashed T4
Min Woo Lee
+2250
Finished T4 and played beautifully all week as defending champ. The course knowledge edge we flagged was real — he contended all four rounds and even held back on 18 to let Woodland walk the final hole alone. Great value pick, cashed well.
T4 ✅Course knowledge edgeContended all week
❌ Result — Missed
Shane Lowry
+3200
Didn't contend at Memorial Park. The ball-striking that we identified as elite just didn't translate into birdies on a week where Woodland was untouchable. Longshot miss — part of the process.
No resultPart of the process

THE PLAYERS Championship Results — Mar 15 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Collin Morikawa
+1500
Morikawa played solid but couldn't get into contention. The profile was right — iron play was excellent — but he just didn't make enough putts to separate himself on a week where Cameron Young was simply better.
No resultPutts cold
❌ Result — Missed
Ludvig Åberg
+2000
Led through 54 holes, held a 4-shot lead entering Sunday. Then TPC Sawgrass did what TPC Sawgrass does. Two water balls on the back nine led to a closing 76. Brutal but the profile was right — we'll be back on Åberg soon.
54-hole leaderClosed 76
❌ Result — Missed
Russell Henley
+4000
Didn't contend at Sawgrass. The consistency model we've been tracking didn't translate this week. Taking the L and moving on — longshot plays require volume to work.
No resultPart of the process

Valspar Championship Results — Mar 22 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Collin Morikawa
+1500
Solid week on the irons but couldn't string enough birdies together at Innisbrook. Fitzpatrick and Im were just better. Model still loves this profile — Morikawa remains on the radar every week.
No resultIron play solid
❌ Result — Missed
Ludvig Åberg
+2800
Still recovering confidence after the PLAYERS collapse. Didn't contend at Innisbrook — the Bermudagrass putting that we expected to click just didn't come around.
No resultPutter cold
❌ Result — Missed
Jason Day
+6500
Copperhead looked set up for his profile but the short game let him down on the weekend. Longshot misses are part of the process — you need volume for these to hit.
No resultShort game cold

Arnold Palmer Invitational Results — Mar 8 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Rory McIlroy
+940
Withdrew after round 2 with back spasms. Was -4 through 36 holes and very much in the mix before the precautionary exit. With THE PLAYERS and Masters ahead it was the right call — just bad luck for our ticket.
WD — BackBad luck
❌ Result — Missed
Tommy Fleetwood
+1750
The iron play we flagged was genuinely there all week — the problem was the Bermuda putter. When you can't hole anything inside 15 feet on this surface, you can't win. Profile confirmed, execution didn't follow.
No resultPutter cold
✅ Result — Cashed T3
Ludvig Åberg
+4100
Tied for third at -12 with six birdies in the final round. Our model nailed the course fit — ascending form showed up in a huge way at Bay Hill. This is exactly why we back players trending upward at long prices.
T3 ✅Model confirmed6 final-round birdies

Cognizant Classic Results — Mar 1 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Nicolai Højgaard
+2500
Missed the cut at PGA National. Our model flagged elite ball-striking correctly but the putter went completely cold at the worst moment. The profile was right — execution fell apart.
MCPutter cold
✅ Result — Cashed T11
Adam Scott
+2200
Finished T11 at PGA National — not the outright cash we wanted but strong model confirmation. Scott's SG: T2G numbers were #1 in the field all week and he continues to produce at a high level in 2026.
T11 ✅Model confirmed#1 SG: T2G
❌ Result — Missed
Sam Ryder
+10000
Missed the cut. The triple-digit profile was there on paper but PGA National didn't cooperate. Longshot plays require volume — one miss doesn't change the strategy.
MCPart of the process

Genesis Invitational Results — Feb 19 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Rory McIlroy
+850
Finished T6 at Riviera — solid but not the contention we needed. His approach play was vintage McIlroy all week, just couldn't string enough birdies on Sunday to make a real run.
T6Solid week
✅ Result — Cashed T4
Adam Scott
+2500
Solo fourth at Riviera, continuing one of the best stretches of his career in 2026. Our model had him as a clear value play and he delivered. SG: T2G was elite all four rounds.
T4 ✅Elite T2GBest form in years
❌ Result — Missed
Sahith Theegala
+8000
Riviera was supposed to suit his athletic ball-striking profile but he couldn't find the scoring zones. The miss at a course where he has shown flashes before is frustrating but not a model concern.
No resultScoring zones cold

AT&T Pebble Beach Results — Feb 12 (FINAL)

❌ Result — Missed
Rory McIlroy
+1200
Couldn't convert at Pebble — Morikawa was simply unbeatable on Sunday. McIlroy's approach play was excellent but the putter didn't show up when it mattered most on the final nine.
No resultMorikawa too good
✅ Result — Cashed WIN
Collin Morikawa
+1400
Won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at -22, birdying the 72nd hole to win by one. Our model had him as a value play all week — elite iron play on a course that demands precision approach shots. A perfect BogeyBeats profile hit.
WIN ✅-22 totalBirdie 72nd holeModel perfect
❌ Result — Missed
Tom Kim
+5500
Didn't contend at Pebble. The power-speed profile we liked didn't translate on the slower Poa annua greens that weekend. Part of the longshot game.
No resultGreens didn't suit
🏆 SG: Total Leaderboard

Overall strokes gained vs. field per round. The single best predictor of sustained PGA Tour success.

RNK
Player
SG: Tot
SG: T2G
SG: App
SG: OTT
SG: Putt
1
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
24 rounds · 2 wins, 4 Top-5s
+4.31
+3.24
+1.78
+0.92
+1.07
2
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
22 rounds · 1 win (PLAYERS)
+3.62
+2.88
+1.22
+1.44
+0.74
3
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
24 rounds · 1 win, 3 Top-5s
+3.18
+2.94
+1.96
+0.48
+0.24
4
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
24 rounds · 1 win (Valspar), T2 PLAYERS
+3.04
+2.76
+1.62
+0.58
+0.56
5
Adam Scott 🇦🇺
22 rounds · 3 Top-10s
+2.98
+2.82
+1.44
+0.71
+0.44
6
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
20 rounds · 1 win (API)
+2.84
+2.44
+1.18
+0.88
+0.40
7
Nicolai Højgaard 🇩🇰
22 rounds · 2 Top-5s
+2.66
+2.48
+1.58
+0.64
+0.18
8
Shane Lowry 🇮🇪
24 rounds · 1 Top-10
+2.52
+2.14
+1.16
+0.58
+0.38
9
Chris Gotterup 🇺🇸
20 rounds · 2 wins
+2.44
+1.98
+0.84
+1.14
+0.46
10
Sam Burns 🇺🇸
22 rounds · 2 Top-10s
+2.28
+1.96
+1.04
+0.62
+0.32
11
Min Woo Lee 🇦🇺
20 rounds · 3 cuts made
+2.14
+1.84
+0.92
+0.72
+0.30
12
Ryan Gerard 🇺🇸
22 rounds · 2 Top-5s
+2.04
+1.88
+0.97
+0.66
+0.16
13
Daniel Berger 🇺🇸
16 rounds · T2 API
+1.96
+1.78
+0.92
+0.66
+0.18
14
Ludvig Åberg 🇸🇪
22 rounds · T3 API, 54-hole PLAYERS leader
+1.88
+1.72
+0.88
+1.08
-0.20
15
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
16 rounds · 1 Top-10
+1.62
+1.48
+0.78
+0.52
+0.14
💨 Driving Stats — Distance & Accuracy

Key off-the-tee metrics. Par-70 courses like Memorial Park heavily reward elite driving distance and SG: OTT.

RNK
Player
Dist (yds)
FIR %
SG: OTT
GIR %
Birdie%
1
Aldrich Potgieter 🇿🇦
Longest driver on Tour 2026
327.4
58.2%
+0.82
71.4%
24.8%
2
Chris Gotterup 🇺🇸
2× winner 2026 · Power specialist
321.8
62.4%
+1.14
72.1%
27.2%
3
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
PLAYERS winner · Bomber profile
319.6
64.8%
+1.44
74.2%
28.1%
4
Ludvig Åberg 🇸🇪
T3 API · Elite power + accuracy
317.2
66.1%
+1.08
73.8%
25.6%
5
Jake Knapp 🇺🇸
Rising star · Long off tee
314.8
59.4%
+0.74
69.8%
23.4%
6
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
World #1 · Accuracy + length
311.4
72.8%
+0.92
78.2%
31.4%
7
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
API winner · Long and accurate
309.2
64.6%
+0.88
72.4%
26.8%
8
Taylor Pendrith 🇨🇦
Long hitter · Par-70 specialist
308.4
60.2%
+0.62
68.8%
22.6%
9
Tony Finau 🇺🇸
Power hitter · Multiple Memorial Park top-20s
307.6
58.8%
+0.54
68.2%
22.2%
10
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
5× major · Power on par-5s
306.8
61.2%
+0.52
69.4%
22.8%
🎯 Approach & Iron Play Leaders

SG: Approach and proximity stats — the most predictive metrics for winning at most PGA Tour venues. Elite approach players win more often than elite drivers.

RNK
Player
SG: App
Prox 100-125
Prox 150-175
GIR %
SG: ARG
1
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
World #1 · Best approach game alive
+1.78
12.4ft
18.6ft
78.2%
+0.68
2
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
Valspar winner · Best iron player 2026
+1.96
13.8ft
19.4ft
76.4%
+0.44
3
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
Valspar winner · Precision approach game
+1.62
14.2ft
20.1ft
74.8%
+0.52
4
Nicolai Højgaard 🇩🇰
Elite iron stats all 2026
+1.58
14.6ft
20.8ft
73.2%
+0.38
5
Adam Scott 🇦🇺
#1 SG: T2G 2026 · Vintage form
+1.44
15.1ft
21.4ft
73.8%
+0.42
6
Shane Lowry 🇮🇪
Elite ball-striking but inconsistent results
+1.16
15.8ft
22.2ft
71.6%
+0.34
7
Sam Burns 🇺🇸
Consistent approach all season
+1.04
16.2ft
22.8ft
70.4%
+0.28
8
Min Woo Lee 🇦🇺
Defending Houston champ
+0.92
16.8ft
23.4ft
69.8%
+0.44
9
Ben Griffin 🇺🇸
Top-20 SG: App all 2026
+0.88
17.2ft
23.8ft
69.2%
+0.22
10
Will Zalatoris 🇺🇸
Elite when healthy · Returning to form
+0.91
17.4ft
24.1ft
68.8%
-0.04
🥛 Putting & Short Game Leaders

SG: Putting and scrambling stats. Bermudagrass putting is a separate skill — these are the leaders on the surfaces that dominate the spring schedule.

RNK
Player
SG: Putt
SG: ARG
Scramble%
1-Putt%
3-Putt Avoid
1
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
World #1 · Does everything elite
+1.07
+0.68
68.4%
42.8%
97.2%
2
Denny McCarthy 🇺🇸
Elite putter · Bermuda grass specialist
+1.24
+0.34
62.8%
44.6%
97.8%
3
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
PLAYERS winner · Clutch putter under pressure
+0.74
+0.48
64.2%
40.2%
96.4%
4
Min Woo Lee 🇦🇺
Defending Houston champ · Strong short game
+0.62
+0.72
66.8%
39.4%
95.8%
5
Rickie Fowler 🇺🇸
Resurgent putter in 2026
+0.58
+0.52
63.4%
39.8%
95.6%
6
Shane Lowry 🇮🇪
Solid putter when making cuts
+0.38
+0.44
62.2%
38.6%
95.2%
7
Matt Fitzpatrick 🇬🇧
Clutch short game — won Valspar from 14ft
+0.56
+0.48
64.8%
40.4%
96.2%
8
Harris English 🇺🇸
Strong scrambler around tight Bermuda lies
+0.32
+0.66
67.4%
38.2%
95.4%
9
Sam Burns 🇺🇸
Clutch putter · Strong under pressure
+0.44
+0.38
62.8%
39.2%
95.6%
10
Akshay Bhatia 🇺🇸
Short game saved multiple rounds at API
+0.40
+0.42
63.6%
39.6%
95.8%

SG: T2G = Tee-to-Green · App = Approach · OTT = Off the Tee · ARG = Around the Green · FIR = Fairways in Regulation · GIR = Greens in Regulation · Prox = Average proximity in feet. Stats through Valspar Championship, Mar 22, 2026.

Jan
15
Sony Open in Hawaii
📍 Waialae CC · Honolulu, HI✅ Winner: Chris Gotterup
$8.9M
Done
Jan
22
The American Express
📍 PGA West · La Quinta, CA✅ Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-27, 4-shot win)
$8.7M
Done
Jan
29
Farmers Insurance Open
📍 Torrey Pines · La Jolla, CA✅ Winner: Justin Rose (-23, wire-to-wire)
$9.6M
Done
Feb
5
WM Phoenix Open
📍 TPC Scottsdale · Scottsdale, AZ✅ Winner: Chris Gotterup (playoff vs. Matsuyama)
$20M
Done
Feb
12
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ⭐ Sig.
📍 Pebble Beach GL · Pebble Beach, CA✅ Winner: Collin Morikawa (-22, birdie on 72nd)
$20M
Done
Feb
19
The Genesis Invitational ⭐ Sig.
📍 Riviera CC · Pacific Palisades, CA✅ Winner: Jacob Bridgeman (-18, final-round 66)
$20M
Done
Feb
26
Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches
📍 PGA National (Champion) · Palm Beach Gardens, FL✅ Winner: Nico Echavarria (-17, Lowry collapse on 16-17)
$9.6M
Done
Mar
15
THE PLAYERS Championship
📍 TPC Sawgrass · Ponte Vedra Beach, FL✅ Winner: Cameron Young (-13, beat Fitzpatrick by 1)
$25M
Done
Mar
22
Valspar Championship
📍 Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) · Palm Harbor, FL✅ Winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (-11, birdie on 18 to beat Lipsky)
$9.1M
Done
Mar
29
Texas Children's Houston Open
📍 Memorial Park Golf Course · Houston, TX✅ Winner: Gary Woodland (-21, 5-shot win over Højgaard · Tournament record)
$9.9M
Done
Apr
5
Valero Texas Open
📍 TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) · San Antonio, TX✅ Winner: J.J. Spaun (-17, eagle on 17 to beat MacIntyre by 1)
$9.8M
Done
Apr
9
Masters Tournament ⛳
📍 Augusta National GC · Augusta, GAScheffler early fav · McIlroy defending after 2025 Grand Slam
$18M+
Upcoming
Apr
16
RBC Heritage ⭐ Sig.
📍 Harbour Town Golf Links · Hilton Head Island, SCSignature Event · Iconic Pete Dye design
$20M
Upcoming
Apr
30
Cadillac Championship ⭐ Sig.
📍 Trump National Doral (Blue Monster) · Miami, FLNew 2026 Signature Event · Blue Monster returns to Tour
$20M
Upcoming
May
7
Truist Championship ⭐ Sig.
📍 Quail Hollow Club · Charlotte, NCSignature Event · PGA Championship venue 2025
$20M
Upcoming
May
14
PGA Championship
📍 Aronimink Golf Club · Newton Square, PA
$18M
Upcoming
Jun
4
Memorial Tournament ⭐ Sig.
📍 Muirfield Village GC · Dublin, OHJack Nicklaus host · Signature Event
$20M
Upcoming
Jun
18
U.S. Open
📍 Oakmont Country Club · Oakmont, PA
$21.5M
Upcoming
Our Story · Est. 2026

Born on the Fairway,
Built for the Fan

BogeyBeats started with one college student, one deep obsession, and a conviction that golf deserved better coverage — honest, data-driven, and written by someone who actually plays.

Hi, I'm Michael Aroyan

I came to golf late. Three, maybe four years ago — give or take a few shanked drives and rounds I'd rather forget. And yet somehow, in that time, this game has become the most important thing in my life outside of school. I'm a junior at UC Santa Barbara, I work at The Valley Club of Montecito, and I'm completely, irreversibly hooked on golf.

It started the way it always does: a casual round with friends, a score I'd rather not share, and that inexplicable pull to go back out again the very next morning. Something about this game got inside me and refused to leave. The precision. The silence. The way it humbles you differently every single time, no matter how many rounds you play. I didn't choose to fall in love with golf — it just happened, and I have no interest in fighting it.

"Golf is the only sport where you can play the same course a hundred times and feel like it's humbling you in a completely new way each time. There's no ceiling to how much you can learn — and that's exactly what keeps pulling me back out every single week." — Michael Aroyan

The Valley Club of Montecito

Working at The Valley Club of Montecito has been one of the best things that has ever happened to me. Nestled into the sun-drenched foothills above Santa Barbara with views of the Pacific that make you forget whatever you shot on the back nine, Montecito is the kind of place that deepens your respect for what golf actually is — not just a sport, but a culture, a craft, and a community.

Every shift there teaches me something I couldn't learn from a textbook or a stats spreadsheet. The rhythm of a golf course through the day. The way morning dew changes how the ball rolls out. The culture of the clubhouse, the conversations between members, the quiet professionalism that goes into making a great golf experience feel effortless. I want to spend my career in this industry, and working at Montecito has only made that desire stronger.

Going to the Events

I don't just watch golf from a couch — I go. And those experiences have shaped how I think about the game more than anything else. Standing inside the ropes at Riviera during the Genesis Invitational, one of the most architecturally perfect golf courses in the world, gives you a reverence for the game's history that no broadcast can replicate. Walking those fairways, you can feel why the pros love it here.

The Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale is a completely different beast — the loudest, most unhinged atmosphere in professional sports, where the 16th hole turns into something that belongs more at a concert than a golf tournament. It's electric in a way that makes you understand why people fall in love with this sport from a completely different angle.

Pebble Beach during the Pro-Am is something else entirely. Standing on the clifftops watching fog roll in off Stillwater Cove while the Pacific glitters below — it's the most beautiful place I've ever watched golf, and I've thought about it nearly every day since. And then there's the U.S. Open — the most demanding, unforgiving major in the sport. Watching the world's best players fight impossible rough and lightning-fast greens gave me a profound respect for what these professionals actually endure. That respect bleeds into every pick and every word on BogeyBeats.

Why I Built BogeyBeats

I built BogeyBeats because I was frustrated. Most golf coverage is either too technical for casual fans or too shallow for people who actually want to understand what's happening on the course. I wanted something in the middle — smart, data-backed analysis written by someone who plays the game, loves it, and has stood on those fairways.

The analytics side of golf is what really captured me. Strokes gained is one of the most powerful tools in sports analytics, and once I started seeing the game through that lens — understanding not just who won, but why, and what the numbers were actually telling us about who should win — I couldn't stop. I started building models. I started making picks. And I started realizing I was actually decent at it.

BogeyBeats is the natural output of all of it. I'm a junior at UCSB with a golf bag in my car, a shift at one of California's great private clubs, and a tab permanently open to the latest SG data. I want to spend my life inside the ropes — working in professional golf, following the tour, building something in this sport. This site is chapter one of that story.

Thanks for being here. Now let's go find some winners.

🏌️

"I want to spend my life in and around this game. BogeyBeats is the first chapter of that."

— Michael Aroyan · Founder, BogeyBeats

📋 Quick Facts

School
UC Santa Barbara · Class of 2027
Work
The Valley Club of Montecito, Santa Barbara, CA
Playing
3–4 years · pure love of the game
Dream
A career in professional golf
Style
Course-nerd meets stats-obsessive

🏆 Events Attended

⛳ Genesis Invitational · Riviera 🏆 U.S. Open 🎉 Waste Management Phoenix Open 🌊 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
🐢
Exclusive · BogeyBeats Secret Weapon
Trundling
Turtle

One pick. One week. Zero compromises.

Deep in the BogeyBeats analytics lab lives our finest statistician: Matthew Aroyan — older brother, numbers savant, and the man responsible for the single most feared column in golf betting. Every week, Matthew surfaces from the data and delivers exactly one pick. He calls it his Master Lock. We call it the most dangerous play on the board. This section exists nowhere else on the internet — and that's the point. You found it. Use it wisely.

🔒 MASTER LOCK OF THE WEEK
Masters Tournament · Week of Apr 9, 2026 · Round 1 Matchup
First Round Matchup Bet
🇮🇪
Rory McIlroy
Defending Masters champion · Grand Slam holder · No fear at Augusta anymore
-115
VS
🇺🇸
Xander Schauffele
More missed cuts than top-5s in 2026 · Putting rank 76th · Putter cold all season
-105
🐢 THE TURTLE TAKES: McILROY
2025
McIlroy Masters champ
76th
Schauffele putting rank
5+
McIlroy Augusta top-10s
-115
McIlroy odds (DK)

Matthew's Analysis

Rory McIlroy is the defending Masters champion. He won here in 2025 by defeating Justin Rose in a playoff and completing the career Grand Slam. The mental weight that haunted him for a decade at Augusta has been lifted entirely. Matthew's model rates the mental edge as a quantifiable strokes-gained factor — and McIlroy's Augusta confidence is now at an all-time high.

Xander Schauffele is one of the better players in the world but he is not playing well right now. He ranks 76th on Tour in putting — a category he was elite in during his 2024 double-major season. He has more missed cuts than top-5s at Augusta over his last four visits. He is a market darling because of his two major wins but the underlying 2026 numbers do not support his odds.

McIlroy is -115 in a round-1 matchup against a player whose putting is well below where it needs to be to compete at Augusta. The turtle doesn't need a big number. It needs the edge. This is the edge.

Odds via DraftKings · Must be 21+. Please bet responsibly. 1-800-GAMBLER.
✅
LAST WEEK — CASHED
Valero Texas Open · Apr 5, 2026
Sudarshan Yellamaraju over Marco Penge
Matthew's call: Yellamaraju -110. Five cuts from six starts, T5 at THE PLAYERS, composed under pressure. Outperformed Penge from the jump and never looked back. Three from three. The turtle keeps moving.
WIN ✅
Result

🐢 Matthew's Master Lock Record — 2026

🔥 Undefeated — Week 2
4
Wins
0
Losses
100%
Hit Rate

The turtle moves slow, deliberate, and sure — and so far, it is undefeated.
New pick drops every Tuesday.